发表机构
Columbia University; The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（哥伦比亚大学; 香港科技大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
研究分而治之策略成功原因，源于对攻击者意图的认知摩擦，通过分析攻击成本、受害者命运相关性等因素，揭示其分化机制，并探讨行为反应等如何影响对攻击意图的推断。
AI 中文摘要
分而治之策略往往并非因机械协调失败而成功，而是源于对攻击者潜在意图的认知摩擦。当攻击者袭击首个目标时，旁观者必须推断此次攻击是局部不满还是系统性行动。若攻击被合理视为特定行为，旁观者会置身事外，促使孤立的受害者投降。我们证明了更高的攻击成本和受害者命运之间更低的相关性有助于这种分化。然后我们研究了行为反应、言辞、条约承诺和下游防御网络如何改变这种推断。
英文摘要
Divide-and-conquer tactics often succeed not through mechanical coordination failures, but through inferential friction regarding an aggressor's underlying intent. When an attacker strikes a first target, bystanders must infer whether the assault represents a localized grievance or a systemic campaign. If the attack is rationally interpreted as particularized, bystanders abstain, prompting the isolated victim to surrender. We demonstrate how higher attack costs and lower correlation between victims' fates facilitate this division. We then study how behavioral responses, rhetoric, treaty commitments, and downstream defense networks modify this inference.
