AI 中文总结
研究利用荷兰改革降低离婚成本，将离婚风险嵌入动态结构匹配模型，用新计算方法识别参数，发现离婚成本降低时更多夫妇结婚，专业化保留，总体福利增加。
AI 中文摘要
持久的婚姻被认为有助于家庭专业化。我们利用荷兰最近的一项改革，该改革暂时降低了离婚成本，同时保持同意要求不变。我们将从人口层面行政数据中获得的离婚风险嵌入到一个动态结构匹配模型中，在该模型中，个体反复匹配并选择婚姻角色。我们使用一种新颖的计算方法，通过将模型拟合到随时间的均衡匹配分布来识别结构参数。与高成本反事实情况相比，我们发现当离婚成本较低时，更多的夫妇选择结婚，因为结婚率的上升超过了离婚率的上升。由于专业化得以保留，总体福利增加。
英文摘要
Durable marriages are presumed to foster the household specialisation that marriage enables. We exploit a recent Dutch reform that temporarily lowered the cost of divorce while leaving consent requirements unchanged. We embed divorce hazards obtained from population-level administrative data into a dynamic structural matching model in which individuals repeatedly match and choose marital roles. We identify the structural parameters by fitting the model to the equilibrium matching distribution over time, using a novel computational approach. Compared to the high-cost counterfactual, we find that more couples choose marriage when divorce costs are lower, as higher rates of marriage entry outweigh the rise in divorce. Because specialisation is preserved, aggregate welfare rises.
