AI 中文总结
该研究利用CI数等参数，依据飞机观测解释1981 - 1986年最低海平面气压，重新分析1987 - 2024年数据得台风强度再分析（TyRA）。对比不同机构最佳路径数据，发现差异，揭示台风强度变化趋势及相关机构数据特点与问题。
AI 中文摘要
最佳路径数据通常用于探索西北太平洋西部台风强度的长期变化。然而，构建最佳路径强度的方法在过去几十年中发生了变化。尽管有多种尝试基于德沃夏克方法进行均匀强度分析，但其与直接观测的一致性仍可提高。本研究尝试利用CI数和其他参数，依据飞机观测精确解释1981 - 1986年期间的最低海平面气压（MSLP），并使用优化系数重新分析了1987 - 2024年的MSLP。通过特定转换得到最大风速，形成台风强度再分析（TyRA）。结果显示，强台风数量呈略有下降趋势但无统计学意义；与TyRA相比，联合台风警报中心（JTWC）最佳路径在特定时段包含更多强台风，东京区域专业气象中心（RSMC）最佳路径则较少；在TyRA中，近期西北太平洋东部台风有所减弱且有统计学意义；不同机构最佳路径数据在快速增强方面存在较大差异；此外，东京区域专业气象中心强度预报误差在21世纪中期增加，而其最佳路径数据质量变化可部分解释这一现象。
英文摘要
Best-track data have been typically used to explore long-term changes in typhoon intensity over the western North Pacific (WNP). However, the methods used to construct best-track intensities have changed over the past several decades. Several attempts have been made to achieve homogeneous intensity analyses based on the Dvorak method, but their consistency with direct observations can still be improved. This study tries to accurately explain minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP) from aircraft observations during 1981-1986 using CI numbers and other parameters as in Aizawa et al. (2024). Using the optimized coefficients, we reanalyzed MSLP for 1987-2024. The reanalyzed MSLPs were converted into maximum wind speeds using Knaff and Zehr (2007). This Typhoon intensity ReAnalysis (TyRA) exhibited a slightly decreasing trend in the number of intense typhoons, which was not statistically significant. Compared with TyRA, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track contained a larger number of intense typhoons from the late 1980s to the mid-2000s, whereas the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo best-track contained a smaller number. In TyRA, typhoons recently weakened over the eastern part of the WNP with some statistical significance. It can be explained by the decrease of mean age of typhoons after typhoon genesis. Large differences among the RSMC Tokyo and JTWC best-track data and TyRA were found for rapid intensification. Furthermore, although previous studies reported that errors in intensity forecasts by the RSMC Tokyo increased in the mid-2000s, the changes in the quality of the RSMC Tokyo best-track data partly explain this.
