AI 中文总结
印度为实现2070年碳中和目标加速电力系统脱碳面临挑战，本文通过制定成本最优路径研究发现，未来年份实际平均系统成本低于2020年，太阳能光伏占比高，短期电池存储可平衡能量，需求响应计划能降成本，助力印度兼顾电力与气候目标。
AI 中文摘要
为实现2070年碳中和目标，印度须加速电力系统脱碳。但技术成本和电力需求的不确定性，以及平衡高比例太阳能和风能发电的需求，给印度电力转型规划带来挑战。本文在不同技术成本、电力需求预测及清洁能源和碳排放目标下，制定并研究了印度发电、存储和输电扩展的成本最优路径。所有情景中，未来年份（2030 - 2050年）实际平均系统成本均低于2020年，即便到2050年碳排放线性降至当前水平的10%。多数情景中太阳能光伏占总装机容量一半以上至四分之三。短期电池存储大规模部署可在净高峰需求时段实现能量平衡和可靠性。扩大绿色氢能、抽水蓄能和核能容量成本降低不到2%，而需求响应计划可降低成本达10%。可再生能源和电池存储成本下降以及需求响应计划使印度能兼顾电力可承受性和气候目标。
英文摘要
To meet climate goals, countries must decarbonize their electricity systems. Yet, uncertainty in future technology costs, electricity demand, and renewable energy generation complicates power system planning and makes the affordability of clean electricity uncertain. Here, we develop a multi-model framework to examine cost-optimal pathways for generation, storage, and transmission expansion in India under alternative technology costs, electricity demand projections, and clean energy and carbon-emission targets. Across all scenarios, real average system costs remain below 2020 levels throughout 2030-2050, even when carbon emissions decline linearly to 90\% below current levels by 2050. Solar PV comprises over half to three-quarters of total installed capacity by 2050 supported by large-scale deployment of short-duration battery storage. Expanding green hydrogen, pumped hydro storage, and nuclear reduces costs by less than 2\%, whereas demand response lowers costs by up to 10\%. Declining renewable and battery costs, together with demand response, make deep electricity decarbonization affordable across a range of realistic scenarios.
