特定年龄人口建模与预测：滚动窗口、扩展窗口还是两者兼具？
Age-specific demographic modeling and forecasting: Rolling window, expanding window, or both?
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中文总结 AI 辅助
研究特定年龄人口建模与预测中滚动窗口和扩展窗口的预测准确性，提出对二者预测赋予同等权重的组合方法，经多国比较发现一种方法性能优越，组合方法在无先验信息时提供稳健实用选择。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
滚动窗口和扩展窗口广泛用于特定年龄人口建模与预测。在此基础上，我们提出一种简单的组合方法，对两种方案的预测赋予同等权重。我们专注于评估和比较两种窗口类型在特定年龄死亡率和生育率建模中的预测准确性。多国比较表明，一种方法的优越性能在不同预测期往往持续存在。在缺乏先验信息时，我们的组合方法提供了一种稳健且实用的选择。
英文摘要
Rolling and expanding windows are widely used in age-specific demographic modeling and forecasting. Building on these approaches, we propose a simple combination method that assigns equal weight to the forecasts from both schemes. Our focus is on evaluating and comparing the forecast accuracy of the two window types in modeling age-specific mortality and fertility. Based on the multi-country comparison, the superior performance of one method often persists across different forecast horizons. In the absence of prior information, our combined approach offers a robust and practical alternative.
