AI 中文总结
研究美国轨道发射市场中猎鹰9号实际发射成本降幅与广告价格降幅不符的原因，构建发射商与星座竞争及垂直整合模型，得出消除双重边际化影响价格、容量租金吸引发射领域进入等结果。
AI 中文摘要
在过去15年里，美国轨道发射数量增长了约一个数量级。约四分之三的发射由SpaceX的猎鹰9号火箭完成，其中约五分之三用于部署SpaceX自己的星链星座。根据经验法则估算，2012 - 2026年猎鹰9号的实际发射成本应下降约70%，但同期实际广告价格降幅不到6%。本文构建了一个发射商与星座之间竞争和垂直整合的简单模型。发射市场为伯特兰竞争，星座服务市场为古诺竞争，且有一个发射商与其专属星座垂直整合。研究得出三个结果：一是消除双重边际化提高了专属星座的均衡规模，成本降低转化为容量租金而非传递给外部买家；二是垂直整合的发射商定价使服务内部和外部需求无差异，导致竞争发射商面临更多剩余需求从而推高均衡发射价格；三是维持均衡发射价格的容量租金会吸引进入发射领域，而专属星座的扩张会阻碍星座领域的进入。
英文摘要
Over the last 15 years the number of U.S. orbital launches has grown by roughly an order of magnitude. About three-quarters of those launches were on SpaceX's Falcon 9 vehicle, and roughly three-fifths of those Falcon launches deployed SpaceX's own Starlink constellation. A back-of-envelope Wright's law calculation suggests this increase in experience should have driven the Falcon 9's real launch cost down by roughly 70\% over 2012--2026. Yet over the same period the advertised price fell by less than 6\% in real terms. Why? I develop a simple model of competition and vertical integration between launchers and constellations. The launch market is Bertrand; the constellation services market is Cournot; one launcher is integrated with its captive constellation. Three results follow. First, the removal of double marginalization raises the captive constellation's equilibrium size. If the integrated launcher obtains cost reductions from this experience, they are captured as capacity rent rather than passed through to external buyers. Second, the integrated launcher prices launches to be indifferent between serving internal and external demand, leaving more residual demand for a competing launcher to monopolize and pushing the equilibrium launch price up. Third, the same capacity rent that holds the equilibrium launch price up can attract entry to the launch segment, while the expansion of the captive constellation deters entry on the constellation side.
CommentsWorking paper
