AI 中文总结
研究国际贸易中经济权力，通过模型将贸易限制映射为损失向量，以两国损失不对称性衡量权力，对2022年世界投入产出网络分析发现贸易依赖非相互，权力与网络位置相关，与贸易失衡关系弱。
AI 中文摘要
国际贸易中的经济权力是一国通过退出贸易关系给另一国带来损失的能力。本文对此进行衡量。短期模型将每个贸易限制表示为世界投入份额矩阵中的禁止进入模式，并将其映射为按国家和部门划分的损失向量。同一断绝情况下两国损失的不对称性即为权力衡量标准。通过对2022年世界投入产出网络的9480次反事实断绝分析，发现相互贸易依赖并非相互的。美国在所有关系中处于有利地位，中国除一种关系外也是如此。这种不对称与双边贸易失衡关系不大，却与国家处于核心或边缘紧密相关。权力是网络位置的属性，而非赤字。
英文摘要
Economic power is a country's capacity to harm another more than itself by withdrawing from a trading relationship. This paper develops a short-run model of trade disruptions to measure that power through counterfactual experiments. Sanctioned buyers and sellers relocate some of the barred flows onto alternate trade partners. Every producer, including those the sanction never touched, loses efficiency as inputs cease to arrive in their original proportions. The post-sanction equilibrium is the fixed point at which the reallocation of trade and the loss of efficiency generate self consistent production levels across all sectors of all countries in the world. Using a world input--output table of eighty economies and fifty industries, we solve for 9,480 such sanction equilibria, one for each unilateral and bilateral severance of a trading relationship. We compare the original equilibria with the sanction equilibria to compute the asymmetry in losses across bilateral country pairs due to the severance of trade between them. Our results show that mutual trade dependence is anything but mutual. The distribution of power in world trade is heavy-tailed. In the median trade relationship, one country inflicts on its trading partner four and a half times the loss it bears. Only 1 in 7 bilateral pairs has a semblance of having near equal power. The United States holds the favorable side against all seventy-nine of its partners and China against all but one. It is worth noting that power bears nearly no relation to the trade balance. Our measure of power among nation states also matches the historical record of economic coercion. The state that imposed the sanction holds the more powerful position in 170 of 185 episodes of the Global Sanctions Data Base.
