海上贸易中断带来的宏观经济风险
Macroeconomic Risks from Maritime Trade Disruptions
- Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode（印度管理学院科泽科德分校）
- Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata（印度统计学院加尔各答分部）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
AI总结：
研究海上贸易中断带来的宏观经济风险，构建海上咽喉点关闭模型，分析其产生的损失、波及范围、两端损失差异及联合关闭影响，揭示不同地区情况，为相关研究提供参考。
AI中文摘要：
本文构建了一个海上咽喉点关闭模型，其中中断一条航运通道所产生的损失并非由通过该通道的贸易价值来衡量，甚至没有上限。这些损失源于下游生产中互补的中间品流动中断。在市场的买卖双方重新匹配转移的贸易可限制损失，但无法消除。在各国中，这种影响是重尾分布的，不仅波及那些贸易通过该通道的经济体，还包括货物从未经过该通道的经济体。被切断通道的两端损失不均，出口端损失是进口端的三到五倍。联合关闭的影响并非各部分之和：中东地区的情况是次可加的，而东亚和俄罗斯 - 欧洲地区的情况是超可加的。
英文摘要：
This paper develops a model of maritime chokepoint closures in which interrupting a shipping passage produces losses that are not measured, or even bounded, by the value of the trade that transits it. The losses stem from disruptions to the flow of intermediate inputs that are complementary in downstream production. Re-matching displaced trade on the buyer and seller sides of the market limits the damage but, at the calibrated recovery friction, does not eliminate it. Across countries, the incidence of these losses is heavy-tailed, and it reaches economies whose cargo never crosses the passage. The two ends of a severed corridor lose unequally, the exporting side by several times at the typical corridor and by a factor of twelve at the largest energy gate, as economic geography funnels commodity-concentrated sellers through a single passage while their buyers re-source. Joint maritime chokepoint closures depart from the sum of their parts: the Middle East scenario is sub-additive, while the East Asia and Russia--Europe scenarios are super additive. The Strait of Hormuz, the largest of the energy gates and the sole sea exit of the Persian Gulf, closed at the end of February 2026. The model prices a sustained closure of it at 1.6% of world GDP, and at roughly half that once the overland crude pipelines the episode mobilized are credited.
