2020年至2025年的学院关闭：探索性分析及其对招生悬崖的影响
College closures from 2020 to 2025: An exploratory analysis and its implications for the enrollment cliff
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本文研究2020年至2025年关闭或合并的学院，通过收集65个机构数据集并结合多种分析方法，描述关闭情况、机构共性及公众讨论，发现东北部和中西部关闭事件较频繁，关闭机构具异质性，结果具探索性和描述性，为应对招生悬崖的机构提供参考。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
新冠疫情引发了一波学院关闭和合并浪潮，这或许能为未来十年预期的人口“招生悬崖”提供一个虽不完美但较早的预演。本文研究了2020年至2025年底关闭或合并的机构。我们收集了65个此类机构的数据集，将机构特征与州和地区层面的人口、经济及金融指标配对，并辅以关闭事件的新闻报道语料库。通过贝叶斯模型、降维、聚类和主题建模相结合的方法，描述了关闭事件发生的地点、关闭机构的共同之处以及它们在公众讨论中的情况。结果显示，东北部和中西部关闭事件更频繁，但绝对数量仍少。关闭的机构具有异质性，财务结构、地区人口统计和机构使命等因素都起了区分作用，宗教归属在媒体报道中反复出现。鉴于样本较小，我们将这些结果视为探索性和描述性的，并讨论了其对应对招生悬崖的机构可能及不可能意味着什么。
英文摘要
The COVID-19 pandemic produced a modest wave of college closures and mergers that may offer an early, if imperfect, preview of the demographic "enrollment cliff" anticipated in the coming decade. This paper examines the institutions that closed or merged between 2020 and the end of 2025. We assemble a dataset of 65 such institutions, pairing institutional characteristics with state- and regional-level demographic, economic, and financial indicators, and supplement it with a corpus of news coverage of the closures. Using a combination of Bayesian models, dimensionality reduction, clustering, and topic modeling, we describe where these closures occurred, what the closed institutions had in common, and how they were discussed publicly. Consistent with prior demographic projections, closures were more frequent in the Northeast and Midwest, though the absolute numbers remain small. The closed institutions were heterogeneous rather than uniform: financial structure, regional demographics, and institutional mission each contributed to distinguishing them, and religious affiliation recurred prominently in media coverage. We frame these results as exploratory and descriptive given the small sample, and we discuss what they may, and may not, imply for institutions navigating the enrollment cliff.
