AI 中文总结
研究美国2010年代实际人均收入增长但预期寿命停滞下降的现象，通过普雷斯顿曲线分析，发现收入与寿命关系变化，呈现脱钩和分化，揭示总体资源转化为寿命增长的弱化及不平等加剧，强调危机是制度和社会转化的弱化。
AI 中文摘要
在2010年代，尽管实际人均收入持续增长，但美国预期寿命停滞并下降。我们用普雷斯顿曲线将这种模式表征为收入与寿命关系的变化。利用1980年至2019年的州级数据以及2000年至2019年的县级数据，估计预期寿命与实际人均收入对数的人口加权普雷斯顿曲线。1980年至2010年，美国各州遵循经典普雷斯顿曲线模式，2000年至2010年各县也是如此。然而，2010年至2019年，各州在变得更富有的同时预期寿命停滞或下降，曲线右移但未上移且更陡峭，表明脱钩和分化。这些模式在大衰退的替代时间锚点以及用教育替代收入时都很稳健，且在不同性别和种族群体中都出现。县级分解与因广泛暴露于社会恶化导致寿命下降的观点大致一致。我们表明，近期美国死亡率危机揭示了总体资源转化为寿命增长的弱化及不平等加剧。我们得出结论，近期美国死亡率危机不仅应被理解为关于特定死因的问题，还应被理解为制度和社会转化的弱化。
英文摘要
U.S. life expectancy stagnated and declined in the 2010s despite continued growth in real per capita income. We use Preston curves to characterize this pattern as a change in the relationship between income and longevity. Using state-level data from 1980 to 2019 and county-level data from 2000 to 2019, we estimate population-weighted Preston curves relating life expectancy to logged real per capita income. From 1980 to 2010, U.S. states followed the classic Preston curve pattern: rising income was accompanied by rising life expectancy. Counties followed the same pattern from 2000 to 2010. From 2010 to 2019, however, states and continued to become richer while life expectancy stagnated or declined. The curves shifted right without shifting up and became steeper, indicating decoupling and divergence: increases in aggregate resources over time no longer produced broad longevity gains, and, in any given year, inequality in life expectancy by income grew. These patterns are robust to alternative temporal anchors around the Great Recession and to substituting education for income. They also appear across sex and racial groups. County-level decompositions are broadly consistent with arguments that longevity has fallen due to widely shared exposure to social deterioration, which may account for the Preston curve reversal. Collectively, we show that the recent U.S. mortality crisis reveals a weakening -- and growing inequality -- in the conversion of aggregate resources into longevity gains. We conclude that the recent U.S. mortality crisis should be understood not only as a story about particular causes of death, but also as a weakening of institutional and social translation.
