发表机构
University of Auckland（奥克兰大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
研究临界转变的可解释早期预警信号，利用最大似然估计从时间序列观测计算指标，通过生态系统和海洋环流崩溃模型评估性能，展示该指标对洞察系统状态的适用性。
AI 中文摘要
临界转变是复杂系统状态的突然、意外变化，常伴有灾难性崩溃和不可逆转性。本文引入一种由分岔引发的临界转变的新型可解释早期预警信号。该指标可通过最大似然估计从时间序列观测中轻松计算得出，能直观洞察系统状态。通过生态系统和海洋环流崩溃模型评估其性能，展示了其适用性。
英文摘要
A critical transition is a sudden, abrupt and potentially unforeseen change in the state of a complex system often associated with catastrophic collapses and irreversability. Here we introduce a novel, interpretable early-warning signal of bifurcation-induced critical transitions. The proposed indicator can be readily computed from timeseries observations by maximum likelihood estimation and it has the advantage of providing immediate insight on the state of the system. We showcase its applicability by assessing its performance using models of ecosystems and ocean circulation collapse.
Comments29 pages, 12 figures
