AI 中文总结
研究决策者通过含非诊断性细节叙事接收信息时，非诊断线索对信念更新的影响。用实验室实验，发现其致信念向最大不确定性修正，延迟信念收敛，增加决策前所需信息量。
AI 中文摘要
决策者通常通过将诊断证据与非诊断性细节结合的叙事来接收信息。在一项实验室实验中，我们研究了这种非诊断性线索如何影响信念更新。参与者在叙事背景下的贝叶斯推理任务中反复报告信念。简化形式估计和主体层面分类表明，非诊断性叙事线索系统性地导致信念朝着最大不确定性修正，削弱先前积累的诊断证据。在等效的抽象背景下，这种影响较弱，当非诊断性线索被无信息消息取代时，在相同的叙事任务中这种影响消失。我们通过表明它延迟信念收敛，从而增加了主体在做出决策前所需的信息量，来评估这种回归不确定性的经济意义。
英文摘要
Decision-makers often receive information through narratives combining diagnostic evidence with details that carry no information useful for inference. We study whether such nondiagnostic details embedded in a narrative affect belief updating. In a laboratory experiment, participants repeatedly report incentivized beliefs in a Bayesian inference task. We implement three conditions with the same statistical structure: an urn problem with diagnostic colored balls and nondiagnostic white balls; the same problem presented as an investigation narrative with diagnostic clues pointing to one suspect and nondiagnostic clues pointing to neither; and the same narrative context with nondiagnostic clues replaced by no-information messages. We find that nondiagnostic details systematically pull participants' beliefs toward 0.5, the point of maximal uncertainty, despite Bayes' rule prescribing no revision. This response is strongest when nondiagnostic clues are embedded in the investigation narrative, although it also occurs in the urn condition. Conversely, it disappears when no-information messages replace nondiagnostic clues.
