城市重建与人口再分布：来自关东大地震后东京的证据
Urban Reconstruction and Population Redistribution: Evidence from Tokyo after the Great Kanto Earthquake
- Institute of Science Tokyo（东京科学大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
AI总结：
研究关东大地震对东京人口分布的影响，通过数字化普查数据并利用火灾损失差异做回归分析。发现重建项目致烧毁区住宅面积减少、租金上升，人口未完全恢复，且地震前分区制度影响小，灾后人口分布受市场价格调整主导。
AI中文摘要：
本研究考察了1923年关东大地震对东京市人口分布的影响。地震引发大火，几乎摧毁了该市一半地区，包括许多城市核心区域。为调查其后果，我将系统的人口普查统计数据数字化，并利用各地区火灾损失的差异进行回归分析。结果表明，作为重建项目一部分实施的土地调整减少了烧毁区域内的居住用地面积，导致单位租金上升。尽管通过建造多层住宅，居住建筑面积最终得以恢复，但在整个考察期内，烧毁区域的人口仍低于震前水平。此外，地震前建立的分区制度对人口再分布几乎没有影响。这些发现表明，灾后人口分布主要是由基于市场的价格调整而非制度规定塑造的。分析还表明，租金上涨减少了亲属家庭的数量，同时增加了工人租房居住的动机。与房东相比，租户在烧毁区域承担的租金负担较低，这使得合租成为一种有效的应对方式。总体而言，烧毁区域灾后人口下降反映了两种相反力量的净效应：租金上涨导致的人口流失，以及寻求减轻租金上涨的工人家庭通过增加合租实现的人口留存。
英文摘要：
This study examines the impact of the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake on population distribution within Tokyo City. The earthquake triggered massive fires that devastated nearly half of the city, including much of its urban core. To investigate its consequences, I digitized systematic census statistics and conducted regression analyses using variation in fire damage across areas. The results show that land readjustment implemented as part of the reconstruction project reduced residential land area within the burned area, leading to higher unit rents. Although the total residential floor area eventually recovered through the construction of multi-story dwellings, the population of the burned area remained below its pre-earthquake level throughout the period examined. In addition, the zoning system established before the earthquake had little effect on population redistribution. These findings suggest that post-disaster population distribution was shaped primarily by market-based price adjustments rather than institutional regulations. The analysis further shows that rising rents reduced the number of kinship households while increasing incentives for workers to rent rooms as lodgers. The rent burden borne by lodgers, relative to that borne by landlords, was lower in the burned area, making housing sharing an effective response. Overall, the post-disaster population decline in the burned area reflected the net effect of two opposing forces: population loss driven by rising rents and population retention through increased housing sharing among worker households seeking to mitigate those rent increases.
