AI 中文总结
对832,941次Solana代币发行进行生存分析，给出毕业率等数据，构建GRW框架，发现社交渠道存在有很大影响，初始市值等因素也影响毕业率，还指出跨机制下降原因及Cox一致性。
AI 中文摘要
我们对832,941次Solana代币发行进行了Kaplan-Meier和Cox比例风险生存分析，观察2026年5月8日至2026年6月10日的24小时毕业结果。给出合并毕业率等数据，构建GRW框架并发布数据集，发现社交渠道等因素对毕业率有显著影响。
英文摘要
To examine whether collector-generated terminal labels on the pump.fun platform can be interpreted as platform-side graduation outcomes, and whether a pre-registered logistic association model generalises across a subsequent temporal holdout of the same cohort. A frozen primary cohort of 749,816 unique mints recorded by a V3 off-chain collector between 12 May 2026 and 10 June 2026 is analysed. The design combines a source-code and reconstructed-state measurement audit of the collector's terminal-classification mechanism with a pre-registered locked logistic association model fitted on a 15-day development cohort and evaluated on a subsequent 14-day validation cohort under the pre-registered stability-gate framework. Calendar-day cluster-robust covariance and day-block bootstrap procedures assess uncertainty. Development discrimination is high (AUROC 0.8594), but the model does not generalise to the held-out validation cohort (AUROC 0.4642; 500 of 500 successful bootstrap replicates; 95% percentile interval [0.4112, 0.5196] containing 0.5000). Validation calibration deteriorates substantially (slope 0.013, intercept +2.816); the market-cap functional form is not stable across pre-registered specifications; and of nine automated evaluations, two pass, six fail, and one is not evaluable. The collector's TIMEOUT label does not establish platform-side non-graduation. The paper treats outcome ascertainment as a first-order measurement problem rather than assuming that an off-chain collector's terminal classification measures the platform-side event. It pairs this audit with a pre-registered held-out temporal-generalisation test and reports the resulting negative finding as registered, alongside a fully reproducible correction history.
Comments17 pages, 4 figures. Pre-registered temporal validation and measurement audit. Data and reproducibility materials available on Zenodo
