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arXiv 2606.23391cs.LGcs.AI
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分布感知的扩散-大语言模型用于鲁棒的超长期时间序列预测

Distribution-Aware Diffusion-LLM for Robust Ultra-Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg(埃尔朗根-纽伦堡大学);Imperial College London(伦敦帝国学院);AUDI AG(奥迪股份公司)

Falguni Ghosh, Vahid Hashemi, Bernhard Kainz

AI总结:

提出Diffusion-LLM框架,将条件扩散模型集成到基于LLM的预测流程中,学习未来数据条件分布并改善语义对齐,在超长期和少样本预测中显著优于现有LLM基线。

摘要:

时间序列预测是一项基本的机器学习任务。近期工作探索了使用大语言模型(LLMs)进行预测,因其强大的泛化能力、模式识别以及零样本或少样本能力。尽管LLMs适合长上下文学习,但在多模态设置中面临挑战:它们缺乏对非文本数据的校准概率建模,并且难以对齐异构表示。为解决这些问题,我们提出了一个新框架Diffusion-LLM,将条件扩散模型集成到基于LLM的预测流程中。这种联合设计能够学习未来数据的条件分布,同时在共享潜在空间中改善语义对齐。我们在六个长期预测基准(包括ETT、Weather和ECL)上评估了Diffusion-LLM。我们的方法持续优于现有的基于LLM的基线,在超长期和少样本预测中取得了显著提升,并证明了分布感知正则化对于增强时间序列LLM鲁棒性和泛化能力的价值。

英文摘要:

Time series forecasting is a fundamental machine learning task. Recent work has explored Large Language Models (LLMs) for this purpose due to their strong generalization, pattern recognition, and zero-shot or few-shot capabilities. Despite their suitability for long-context learning, LLMs face challenges in multimodal settings: they lack calibrated probabilistic modeling for non-text data and struggle to align heterogeneous representations. To address these issues, we propose a new framework Diffusion-LLM that integrates a conditional diffusion model into an LLM-based forecasting pipeline. This joint design enables learning the conditional distribution of future data while improving semantic alignment in a shared latent space. We evaluate Diffusion-LLM on six long-term forecasting benchmarks, including ETT, Weather, and ECL. Our method consistently outperforms existing LLM-based baseline, achieving notable gains in ultra-long-term and few-shot forecasting and demonstrating the value of distribution-aware regularization for enhancing robustness and generalization in time series LLMs.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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