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arXiv 2606.22016stat.ME

缺失数据下估计平均因果效应时多重插补中辅助变量的使用

On the use of auxiliary variables in multiple imputation when estimating the average causal effect with missing data

Murdoch Children’s Research Institute(默多克儿童研究所);University of Melbourne(墨尔本大学)

Jiaxin Zhang, S. Ghazaleh Dashti, John B. Carlin, Katherine J. Lee, Margarita Moreno-Betancur

AI总结:

研究在缺失数据下使用多重插补估计平均因果效应时,辅助变量(中介与非中介)对识别性和偏差的影响,提出正确区分变量类型并采用兼容灵活的多重插补方法以避免偏倚。

摘要:

使用观测数据估计平均因果效应(ACE)是因果推断的关键焦点,而缺失数据构成了重要挑战。多重插补(MI)是处理缺失数据的广泛使用的方法,当插补与实质性分析兼容时,可产生无偏估计。MI的优势之一是其能够包含所谓的“辅助变量”,即与不完整变量相关但被排除在实质性分析之外的变量。尽管许多研究探讨了在MI中使用辅助变量以提高精度,但关于在缺失数据存在下对ACE的可识别性(或“可恢复性”)所必需的辅助变量的研究却很少。在这项工作中,我们研究了在由缺失有向无环图(m-DAGs)描绘的一系列典型单变量和多变量缺失机制下,辅助变量(包括中介变量和非中介变量)的使用。对于每种设置,我们推导出可恢复性结果,然后使用正确指定的g计算评估基于MI和完整案例的方法来估计ACE,考虑了纳入辅助变量的不同策略以及MI模型的不同兼容程度。基于模拟研究的结果,我们提供了实用指导,强调正确区分中介和非中介辅助变量对于避免偏倚很重要,并且应使用兼容且灵活(非参数)的MI方法来纳入这些变量。

英文摘要:

Estimating the average causal effect (ACE) using observational data is a key focus in causal inference for which missing data present an important challenge. Multiple imputation (MI) is a widely used method for handling missing data and can yield unbiased estimates when the imputation is compatible with the substantive analysis. One of the advantages of MI is its scope to include so-called "auxiliary variables", defined as variables associated with incomplete variables that are excluded from the substantive analysis. Although many studies have looked at the use of auxiliary variables in MI for improving precision, the study of auxiliary variables that are necessary for the identifiability (or "recoverability") of the ACE in the presence of missing data has been scant. In this work, we investigate the use of auxiliary variables, both mediators and non-mediators, across a range of typical univariable and multivariable missingness mechanisms depicted by missingness directed acyclic graphs (m-DAGs). For each setting, we derive recoverability results, then evaluate MI-based and complete-case methods for estimating the ACE using correctly specified g-computation, considering different strategies for incorporating auxiliary variables and varying degrees of compatibility for MI models. Based on findings from the simulation studies, we provide practical guidance, highlighting that distinguishing appropriately between mediator and non-mediator auxiliary variables is important to avoid bias as is the use of compatible and flexible (non-parametric) MI methods that incorporate these variables.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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