面向预测的卡尔曼滤波
Predictively-Oriented Kalman Filtering
AI总结:
针对非线性状态空间模型中模型误设导致的过度自信推断问题,提出一种基于预测导向后验的快速近似线性高斯更新方法(EKF-PrO),计算成本与现有滤波方法相当。
摘要:
本文提出了一种后贝叶斯方法,用于非线性状态空间模型中的在线滤波,能够避免在动力学模型、测量模型或两者都可能被误设的情况下出现过度自信的推断。这通过使用预测导向(PrO)后验来解决,这是一种新兴范式,其中学习(即后验集中)当且仅当整体模型被良好指定时发生,而不严格遵循贝叶斯定理。由于PrO后验的表征具有挑战性,我们的主要技术贡献是一种快速的近似线性高斯更新过程,类似于(迭代)扩展卡尔曼滤波。该方法称为EKF-PrO,没有可调超参数,计算成本与现有滤波方法相当。在系统性地误设状态空间模型的一系列线性和非线性应用中,对性能进行了实证评估。
英文摘要:
This paper presents a post-Bayesian approach to online filtering in nonlinear state-space models, capable of avoiding over-confident inferences in settings where either the dynamical model, the measurement model, or both, could be misspecified. This is addressed using predictively oriented (PrO) posteriors, an emerging paradigm in which learning (i.e., posterior concentration) occurs if and only if the overall model is well-specified, without strict adherence to Bayes' theorem. As the characterisation of PrO posteriors is challenging, our main technical contribution is a fast approximate linear-Gaussian update procedure, analogous to an (iterated) extended Kalman filter. The methodology, which we call EKF-PrO, has no tunable hyper-parameters and has a computational cost comparable to that of existing filtering methods. Performance is empirically assessed on a range of linear and non-linear applications, in which the state-space model is systematically misspecified.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。