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arXiv 2606.02497cs.AI

用LLM智能体弥合时间序列预测的最后一公里

Bridging the Last Mile of Time Series Forecasting with LLM Agents

Yuhua Liao, Zetian Wang, Qiangqiang Nie, Zhenhua Zhang

AI总结:

提出一个LLM智能体框架,通过检索上下文证据和结构化约束,将统计预测转化为业务就绪的预测。

摘要:

时间序列预测发展迅速,特别是随着基础模型的出现,这些模型在数值外推上展现出强大的零样本性能。然而,在实际预测场景中,统计上合理的基线很少是实践中使用的最终预测。在预测成为决策就绪之前,通常需要使用弱结构化的业务背景进行修订,例如假日效应、活动计划、外部事件、历史类比和专家反馈。这一实际阶段在预测文献中仍未得到充分探索。在本文中,我们将这一阶段定义为 extbf{最后一公里预测}问题,并提出一个位于预测骨干之上的LLM智能体框架。我们的系统维护一个统一的预测工作空间,调用工具检索上下文证据,并在结构安全约束下将推理轨迹转化为明确的预测修订行动。它还通过map-reduce风格的分解支持长周期预测,并通过记忆库支持事后反思。最终的系统设计为可控和可审计的。通过实际案例研究,我们展示了LLM智能体如何弥合统计预测与业务就绪预测之间的差距。

英文摘要:

Time series forecasting has advanced rapidly, especially with the emergence of foundation models that show strong zero-shot performance on numerical extrapolation. However, in real-world forecasting settings, a statistically plausible baseline is rarely the final forecast used in practice. Before a forecast becomes decision-ready, it often needs to be revised using weakly structured business context such as holiday effects, campaign plans, external events, historical analogs, and expert feedback. This practical stage remains underexplored in the forecasting literature. In this paper, we formulate this stage as the \textbf{last-mile forecasting} problem and present an LLM-agent framework that sits on top of a forecasting backbone. Our system maintains a unified forecast workspace, invokes tools to retrieve contextual evidence, and converts reasoning trajectories into explicit forecast revision actions under structural safety constraints. It also supports long-horizon forecasting through map-reduce-style decomposition and post-hoc reflection through a memory bank. The resulting system is designed to be controllable and auditable. Through real-world case studies, we show how LLM agents can bridge the gap between statistical prediction and business-ready forecasting.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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