改变观点？在线讨论中说服与极化的动态
Change My View? The Dynamics of Persuasion and Polarization in Online Discourse
AI总结：
研究通过分析Reddit的ChangeMyView讨论，探讨说服与极化动态，发现让步与共情策略促进观点改变，而直接反驳等策略则抑制观点改变。
摘要：
哲学上说服常假设共享证据和理性论辩会导致观点收敛，但日常讨论常相反。本文利用大语言模型分析Reddit的ChangeMyView讨论，发现让步或共情策略显著增加观点改变可能性，而直接反驳等策略则降低此可能性。研究显示有效公共论证需兼顾关系框架与证据内容，呼吁对理性对话规范进行修正。
英文摘要：
Philosophical accounts of persuasion often assume that shared evidence and rational argumentation should lead to a convergence of views between peers, yet everyday discourse often suggests otherwise. In this study, we use large language models to analyze a corpus of debates on Reddit's r/ChangeMyView, where belief revision is publicly signaled. Large language models were asked, halfway through each discussion, to forecast whether such an acknowledgement would arise; their probabilistic estimates serve as a conversational baseline. Each reply was then coded, through a hybrid machine-assisted procedure, for ten familiar rhetorical strategies -- concession, empathy, logical challenge, credibility appeals, and so forth. Adding these strategic features markedly improves predictive power and yields a consistent pattern: moves that express concession or empathetic alignment substantially increase the prospect of belief change, whereas frontal refutation, credibility attacks, and topic deflection diminish it. The findings indicate that effective public reasoning depends as much on relational framing as on evidential content, and they invite a refinement of normative accounts of rational dialogue.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
