苏格兰非街道停车与电动汽车普及之间的因果关系
The causal relation between off-street parking and electric vehicle adoption in Scotland
AI总结：
本文研究非街道停车对电动汽车普及的影响，发现其作为转换催化剂提升购买概率，但主要促进已有经济能力的家庭，而收入是主要的购买门槛。
摘要：
电动汽车普及的关键在于最大化整体采用率并确保公平获取。本文探讨苏格兰家庭中非街道停车与电动汽车普及之间的'充电差距'是真实基础设施限制还是社会经济差异的产物。通过概率因果框架分析全国代表性数据，发现私人非街道停车提高电动汽车拥有率，但主要加速已有经济能力的家庭。收入则是主要的购买门槛，高收入家庭更可能拥有停车和购买能力，导致观测模型高估非街道停车的影响。研究支持双轨政策：通过金融工具降低购买门槛，同时解决高密度城市中潜在购买群体的家用车充电问题。
英文摘要：
The transition to electric mobility hinges on maximising aggregate adoption while also facilitating equitable access. This study examines whether the 'charging divide' between households with and without off-street parking reflects a genuine infrastructure constraint or a by-product of socio-economic disparity. Moving beyond conventional predictive models, we apply a probabilistic causal framework to a nationally representative dataset of Scottish households, enabling estimation of policy interventions while explicitly neutralising the confounding effect of other causal factors. The results reveal a structural hierarchy in the EV adoption process. Private off-street parking functions as a conversion catalyst: enabling access to home-charging increases the probability of EV ownership from 3.3% to 5.6% (a 70% relative, 2.3 percentage point absolute increase). However, this effect primarily accelerates households already economically positioned to purchase an EV rather than recruiting new entrants. By contrast, household income operates as the fundamental affordability ceiling. A causal contrast between lower- and higher-income strata, shows a reduction in market non-participation by 23.1 percentage points, identifying financial capacity as the principal gatekeeper to entering the EV transition funnel. Crucially, the analysis demonstrates that standard observational models overstate the isolated effect of off-street parking infrastructure. The apparent effect emerges from selection bias: higher-income households are disproportionately likely to possess both private parking and the means to purchase EVs. These findings support a dual-track policy strategy: lowering the affordability ceiling for non-participants through financial instruments, while addressing EV home-charging access for the 'latent intent' cohort in high-density urban contexts.
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