受风险限制而非能力：通过技术-风险双因素模型量化AI职业替代率
Bounded by Risk, Not Capability: Quantifying AI Occupational Substitution Rates via a Tech-Risk Dual-Factor Model
AI总结：
本文通过技术-风险双因素模型量化AI职业替代率，揭示了职业替代并非瞬间发生，而是渐进过程，并指出算法概率无法涵盖专家受专业责任限制的'机构溢价'。
摘要：
大型语言模型（LLMs）的部署引发了对技术失业的担忧。现有基于任务的评估主要测量理论上的
英文摘要：
The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) has ignited concerns about technological unemployment. Existing task-based evaluations predominantly measure theoretical "exposure" to AI capabilities, ignoring critical frictions of real-world commercial adoption: liability, compliance, and physical safety. We argue occupations are not eradicated instantaneously, but gradually encroached upon via atomic actions. We introduce a Tech-Risk Dual-Factor Model to re-evaluate this. By deconstructing 923 occupations into 2,087 Detailed Work Activities (DWAs), we utilize a multi-agent LLM ensemble to score both technical feasibility and business risk. Through variance-based Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) validation with an expert panel, we demonstrate a profound cognitive gap: isolated algorithmic probabilities fail to encapsulate the "institutional premium" imposed by experts bounded by professional liability. Applying a strictly algorithmic baseline via mathematical bottleneck aggregation, we calculate Relative Occupational Automation Indices ($OAI$) for the U.S. labor market. Our findings challenge the traditional Routine-Biased Technological Change (RBTC) hypothesis. Non-routine cognitive roles highly dependent on symbolic manipulation (e.g., Data Scientists) face unprecedented exposure ($OAI \approx 0.70$). Conversely, unstructured physical trades and high-stakes caretaking roles exhibit absolute resilience, quantifying a profound "Cognitive Risk Asymmetry." We hypothesize the emergent necessity of a "Compliance Premium," indicating wage resilience increasingly tied to risk-absorption capacity. We frame these findings as a cross-sectional diagnostic of systemic vulnerability, establishing a foundation for subsequent Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) econometric modeling involving dynamic wage elasticity and structural labor reallocation.
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