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arXiv 2603.22326cs.LGcs.AI

一种用于在严重类别不平衡下可靠风功率骤变事件预测的直接分类方法

A Direct Classification Approach for Reliable Wind Ramp Event Forecasting under Severe Class Imbalance

WEL Research Institute(WEL研究机构);University of Sannio(萨尼奥大学)

Alejandro Morales-Hernández, Fabrizio De Caroa, Gian Marco Paldino, Pascal Tribel, Alfredo Vaccaro, Gianluca Bontempi

AI总结:

本文提出了一种多变量时间序列分类方法,通过数据预处理策略和集成学习提升风功率骤变事件预测性能,实测数据验证了方法的有效性。

摘要:

决策支持系统对于维持低碳电力系统中的电网稳定性至关重要,例如风力发电场,通过提供实时警报帮助控制室操作员识别潜在事件,包括风功率骤变事件(WPREs)。这些早期警告使能够及时启动更详细的系统稳定性评估和预防措施。然而,由于WPRE数据集中的固有类别不平衡,预测这些事件具有挑战性,其中骤变事件比正常情况更少见(通常少于观测事件的15%)。忽视这一特征会损害传统机器学习模型的性能,这些模型通常倾向于多数类。本文介绍了一种新的WPRE预测方法,作为多变量时间序列分类任务,并提出了一种数据预处理策略,从最近的电力观测中提取特征并屏蔽不可用的骤变信息,使其能够与传统的实时骤变识别工具集成。特别是,所提出的方法结合了多数类下采样和集成学习,以增强在类别不平衡下的风骤变事件预测。在真实世界数据集上的数值模拟显示了我们方法的优越性,实现了超过85%的准确率和88%的加权F1分数,优于基准分类器。

英文摘要:

Decision support systems are essential for maintaining grid stability in low-carbon power systems, such as wind power plants, by providing real-time alerts to control room operators regarding potential events, including Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs). These early warnings enable the timely initiation of more detailed system stability assessments and preventive actions. However, forecasting these events is challenging due to the inherent class imbalance in WPRE datasets, where ramp events are less frequent (typically less than 15\% of observed events) compared to normal conditions. Ignoring this characteristic undermines the performance of conventional machine learning models, which often favor the majority class. This paper introduces a novel methodology for WPRE forecasting as a multivariate time series classification task and proposes a data preprocessing strategy that extracts features from recent power observations and masks unavailable ramp information, making it integrable with traditional real-time ramp identification tools. Particularly, the proposed methodology combines majority-class undersampling and ensemble learning to enhance wind ramp event forecasting under class imbalance. Numerical simulations conducted on a real-world dataset demonstrate the superiority of our approach, achieving over 85% accuracy and 88% weighted F1 score, outperforming benchmark classifiers.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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