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arXiv 2603.13638q-fin.CP
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面向性能的因果信号工程用于非平稳金融市场的应用

Performance-Driven Causal Signal Engineering for Financial Markets under Non-Stationarity

Lucas A. Souza

AI总结:

本文提出一种面向性能的因果信号工程框架,用于构建严格因果的前瞻性观测量,通过稳健归一化的复合指标与因果计算的导数组件,产生局部相位领先效应,并在制度转换附近放大,同时保持严格因果性。

摘要:

我们介绍了一种面向性能的框架,用于在强非平稳时间序列中构建严格因果的前瞻性观测量。该方法结合了稳健归一化的复合指标与因果计算的导数组件,产生局部相位领先效应,在制度转换附近放大,同时保持严格因果性。基于滞后决策的功能将观测量映射到离散系统状态,执行延迟一步以保持严格的时间顺序。通过走步方案实现适应,其中模型参数使用滚动训练-验证窗口进行选择,并随后应用于外样本。在此设置中,验证段充当内部性能筛选器,而非统计验证集,并且无法从其单独推断出一般化结论。该框架在高频金融时间序列上进行评估,作为非平稳复杂系统的实验性实现。在受控零成本设置下,所产生的动态表现出显著的风险重塑效应,表现为更平滑的轨迹和减少的回撤,相对于直接暴露而言,并应被解释为可实现性能的上限。这些结果展示了如何在不依赖非因果信息、显式时间范围标记或高容量预测模型的情况下,通过因果信号工程在非平稳系统中生成前瞻性结构。

英文摘要:

We introduce a performance-driven framework for constructing strictly causal forward-oriented observables in strongly non-stationary time series. The method combines a robustly normalized composite of heterogeneous indicators with a causally computed derivative component, yielding a local phase-leading effect that is amplified near regime transitions while remaining fully causal. A hysteresis-based decision functional maps the observable into discrete system states, with execution delayed by one step to preserve strict temporal ordering. Adaptation is achieved through a walk-forward scheme, in which model parameters are selected using rolling train--validation windows and subsequently applied out-of-sample. In this setting, the validation segment acts as an internal performance screen rather than as a statistical validation set, and no claims of generalization are inferred from it alone. The framework is evaluated on high-frequency financial time series as an experimentally accessible realization of a non-stationary complex system. Under a controlled zero-cost setting, the resulting dynamics exhibit a pronounced risk-reshaping effect, characterized by smoother trajectories and reduced drawdowns relative to direct exposure, and should be interpreted as an upper bound on achievable performance. These results illustrate how causal signal engineering can generate anticipatory structure in non-stationary systems without relying on non-causal information, explicit horizon labeling, or high-capacity predictive models.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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