创新寒冬的潜在影响：评估联邦科研削减对教职员工活动的影响
The Potential for an Innovation Winter: Estimating Impact of Federal Research Reductions on Faculty Activity
AI总结：
研究分析了联邦科研经费削减对研究型大学科研活动的影响，指出经费减少将导致大量教职员工科研支持下降，进而影响科研和博士项目质量。
摘要：
特朗普政府于2026年提议减少联邦科研支持，这将深刻削弱美国研究型大学，尤其是在STEM领域和医学（STEMM）领域。潜在的灾难性后果将是个人教职员工的资金分配问题。数据和随机建模显示，结果将是大量原本活跃于科研的教职员工将获得亚临界水平的科研支持。波士顿大学的科研支出数据表明，资金分配具有重尾分布（类似帕累托分布），其中少数教职员工负责大部分资金，而另一部分教职员工则几乎没有外部支持。指数正态分布拟合了支出数据，且乘法随机模型可以复现STEMM教职员工和工程教职员工的支出分布。利用146所R1（非常研究密集型）工程学院的平均支出数据，模型预测，如果削减影响均等，40%的经费削减将使拥有超过一半教职员工年支出低于10万美元的R1大学比例从26%增加到47%。如果最研究密集型的大学获得不成比例的份额，这一比例将增加到几乎60%。在这种环境下，面对其他成本压力，很难在许多机构维持高质量的科研和博士项目，从而引发关于其最优科研策略和组织的问题。提出了应对这种未来的方法。
英文摘要：
The proposed reductions in federal research support proposed by the Trump Administration for 2026 would profoundly degrade the United States research universities, especially in the STEM fields and medicine (STEMM). A potentially devastating consequence would be on the funding distribution for individual faculty. Data and stochastic modeling demonstrate that the result would be large fractions of previously research active faculty having subcritical research support. Research expenditure data from Boston University suggests that the funding distribution has a heavy tail (a Pareto like distribution)where a relatively small number of faculty have responsibility for a large fraction of the funding and that another fraction have minimal external support. A log normal distribution fits the expenditure data, and a multiplicative stochastic model replicates the spending distributions for the STEMM faculty and, separately, the engineering faculty. Using data for the average expenditures by 146 R1 (very research intensive) engineering schools, the model predicts that the 40 percent funding reduction proposed by the Administration would increase from 26 to 47 percent the number of R1 universities with over half their faculty with less than 100,000 dollars of annual expenditures, if the reduction affects all equally. If the most research intensive universities win a disproportionate share, this percentage of universities jumps to almost 60. In such an environment, and in the face of other cost pressures, it would be difficult to maintain quality research and doctoral programs across many institutions, raising important questions about their optimal research strategy and organization if faced with this declining support. Ideas for navigating such a future are presented.
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