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arXiv 2602.22982physics.space-phastro-ph.EPastro-ph.SR
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利用STEREO-A研究未来亚L1任务的潜在益处

Investigating potential benefits of future sub-L1 missions with STEREO-A

Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria（奥地利空间天气办公室，地球圈奥地利）；Space Science Center and Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of New Hampshire（新罕布什尔大学空间科学中心及物理与天文学系）；Conrad Observatory, GeoSphere Austria（康拉德天文台，地球圈奥地利）；Institute of Physics, University of Graz（格拉茨大学物理研究所）；Kanzelhöhe Observatory for Solar and Environmental Research, University of Graz（格拉茨大学坎泽勒赫厄太阳与环境研究天文台）；Community Coordinated Modeling Center, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center（NASA戈达德太空飞行中心社区协调建模中心）；Universities Space Research Association（大学空间研究协会）

Eva Weiler, Emma E. Davies, Christian Möstl, Noé Lugaz, Astrid Veronig, Rachel Bailey, Martin Reiss

备注：
52 pages, 9 Figures, submitted to Space Weather on 26 February 2026, accepted on 3 June 2026, published on 11 June 2026
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AI总结：

基于STEREO-A在2022-2024年穿越日地线的原位数据，统计评估亚L1监测对地磁暴预报的潜在优势，发现径向间隔~0.05 au时提前时间有限，且东侧优于西侧；开发了基于经验方法的SYM-H指数实时建模方法。

摘要：

我们首次利用STEREO-A航天器作为亚L1监测器的原位数据，对地磁暴预报进行了统计研究。2022年11月至2024年6月期间，STEREO-A穿越日地线，覆盖了与日地线±15°的纵向和径向分离，以及距地球0.01-0.06 au的距离。这次穿越为评估ESA未来的亚L1任务概念（如HENON和SHIELD）提供了独特机会。我们识别了32个由STEREO-A和L1航天器同时观测到的日冕物质抛射（CME）。在这32个CME事件中，有8个首先在L1处被探测到，表明径向间隔高达~0.05 au并不总能带来提前时间优势。此外，我们发现当STEREO-A位于日地线以东（西）时，提前时间的增益更大（更小）。我们开发了一种基线方法，用于利用未来亚L1原位数据实现地磁SYM-H指数的时间平移和实时建模。该方法在整个时间段内连续运行，从而模拟所有太阳风结构的地磁响应。我们的方法基于经验驱动，应被视为利用亚L1数据的初步尝试。按照该方法，从STEREO-A数据中正确识别了47次观测到的地磁暴中的26次。强烈事件（82%，SYM-H<-100 nT）被很好地检测到，其中大多数也与识别的CME事件相关。由于我们的方法引入的偏差，大多数SYM-H最小值预测时间较晚（72%）且强度更强（58%）。

英文摘要：

We present the first statistical study of geomagnetic storm forecasting using in situ data from the STEREO-A spacecraft as a sub-L1 monitor. Between November 2022 and June 2024, STEREO-A crossed the Sun-Earth line, covering longitudinal and radial separations of +/-15° from the Sun-Earth line and 0.01-0.06 au from Earth. This passage provides a unique opportunity to assess future sub-L1 mission concepts by ESA, such as HENON and SHIELD. We identify 32 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by both STEREO-A and L1 spacecraft. Eight of these 32 CME events are first detected at L1, indicating that radial spacecraft separations of up to ~0.05 au do not always yield lead time advantages. Furthermore, we find greater (smaller) gains in lead time when STEREO-A is east (west) of the Sun-Earth line. We develop a baseline methodology for the use of future sub-L1 in situ data to enable time-shifting and real-time modeling of the geomagnetic SYM-H index. This is run continuously over the entire time period, therefore modeling the geomagnetic response of all solar wind structures. Our methodology is empirically motivated and should be considered a first approach in addressing the use of sub-L1 data. Following this methodology, 26 of 47 observed geomagnetic storms are correctly identified from STEREO-A data. Intense events (82%, SYM-H<-100 nT) are well detected, most of which are also associated with an identified CME event. Most SYM-H minima are predicted later (72%) and stronger (58%) than those observed due to biases introduced by our methodology.

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