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arXiv 2602.22965stat.MEcs.CEeess.SPstat.COstat.ML
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关于似然曲线下的面积与模型选择中的假证据的注记

A note on the area under the likelihood and the fake evidence for model selection

Universita’ di Catania(卡塔尼亚大学);Stony Brook University(石溪大学)

L. Martino, F. Llorente

AI总结:

本文指出在模型选择中可使用不恰当先验分布,提出“假证据”概念,并通过实验验证了其有效性。

摘要:

不恰当先验分布不允许用于计算贝叶斯证据Z=p(y)(即边缘似然),因为在这种情况下,由于计算中涉及任意常数,Z无法完全确定。然而,在本工作中,我们指出它们可以用于特定类型的模型选择问题:当有多个(可能无限)属于同一参数族的模型(即调节参数的参数模型)。然而,此类选择中涉及的量不能被视为贝叶斯证据:我们建议使用“假证据”(或“似然曲线下的面积”在使用均匀不恰当先验的情况下)。我们还展示,在这种模型选择场景中,使用扩散先验并使其尺度参数渐近趋于无穷大时,无法恢复由均匀不恰当先验获得的似然曲线下的面积。我们首先从一般观点讨论这一点。然后,我们提供了一个应用示例,即考虑非线性基的贝叶斯回归模型的所有细节,分别考虑使用均匀不恰当先验和高斯先验两种情况。还提供了一个数值实验来确认和检验所有之前的陈述。

英文摘要:

Improper priors are not allowed for the computation of the Bayesian evidence $Z=p({\bf y})$ (a.k.a., marginal likelihood), since in this case $Z$ is not completely specified due to an arbitrary constant involved in the computation. However, in this work, we remark that they can be employed in a specific type of model selection problem: when we have several (possibly infinite) models belonging to the same parametric family (i.e., for tuning parameters of a parametric model). However, the quantities involved in this type of selection cannot be considered as Bayesian evidences: we suggest to use the name ``fake evidences'' (or ``areas under the likelihood'' in the case of uniform improper priors). We also show that, in this model selection scenario, using a diffuse prior and increasing its scale parameter asymptotically to infinity, we cannot recover the value of the area under the likelihood, obtained with a uniform improper prior. We first discuss it from a general point of view. Then we provide, as an applicative example, all the details for Bayesian regression models with nonlinear bases, considering two cases: the use of a uniform improper prior and the use of a Gaussian prior, respectively. A numerical experiment is also provided confirming and checking all the previous statements.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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