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arXiv 2602.22532cs.LG
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动态因果结构的粗到细学习

Coarse-to-Fine Learning of Dynamic Causal Structures

School of Software(软件学院);Shandong University(山东大学);Department of Computer Science(计算机科学系);New York University(纽约大学);George Mason University(乔治·马歇尔大学);Shandong Institutes of Industrial Technology(山东省工业技术研究院)

Dezhi Yang, Qiaoyu Tan, Carlotta Domeniconi, Jun Wang, Lizhen Cui, Guoxian Yu

AI总结:

DyCausal通过卷积网络和线性插值方法,从粗到细学习动态因果结构,提升因果发现的效率和稳定性。

摘要:

时间序列的动态因果结构学习是一个具有挑战性的问题。现有的大多数方法依赖于分布或结构不变性来揭示潜在的因果动态,假设存在平稳或部分平稳的因果性。然而,这些假设往往与现实中观察到的复杂、时间变化的因果关系相冲突。这促使了需要能够处理完全动态因果性的方法,其中瞬时和滞后依赖性在时间上不断演变。这种设定对因果发现的效率和稳定性提出了重大挑战。为此,我们引入了DyCausal,一种动态因果结构学习框架。DyCausal利用卷积网络在粗粒度时间窗口内捕捉因果模式,然后应用线性插值在每个时间步中细化因果结构,从而恢复细粒度和时间变化的因果图。此外,我们提出了一种基于矩阵范数缩放的无环约束,这在提高效率的同时有效约束了演进中的因果结构中的环路。在合成和真实世界数据集上的全面评估表明,DyCausal在现有方法上实现了更优越的性能,提供了一种稳定且高效的从粗到细识别完全动态因果结构的方法。

英文摘要:

Learning the dynamic causal structure of time series is a challenging problem. Most existing approaches rely on distributional or structural invariance to uncover underlying causal dynamics, assuming stationary or partially stationary causality. However, these assumptions often conflict with the complex, time-varying causal relationships observed in real-world systems. This motivates the need for methods that address fully dynamic causality, where both instantaneous and lagged dependencies evolve over time. Such a setting poses significant challenges for the efficiency and stability of causal discovery. To address these challenges, we introduce DyCausal, a dynamic causal structure learning framework. DyCausal leverages convolutional networks to capture causal patterns within coarse-grained time windows, and then applies linear interpolation to refine causal structures at each time step, thereby recovering fine-grained and time-varying causal graphs. In addition, we propose an acyclic constraint based on matrix norm scaling, which improves efficiency while effectively constraining loops in evolving causal structures. Comprehensive evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that DyCausal achieves superior performance compared to existing methods, offering a stable and efficient approach for identifying fully dynamic causal structures from coarse to fine.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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