财产回收激励与社会互动对自然灾害中自我撤离决策的影响:基于代理的建模方法
Effects of Property Recovery Incentives and Social Interaction on Self-Evacuation Decisions in Natural Disasters: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach
AI总结:
本文通过基于代理的建模方法,研究了财产回收激励和社会互动对自然灾害中家庭撤离决策的影响,发现社会网络结构和优先级设置对撤离率有显著影响。
摘要:
理解撤离决策行为是设计灾害缓解政策的关键组成部分。本研究探讨了社区中家庭代理之间的交流如何影响自我撤离决策。我们开发了一个基于代理的模型,模拟家庭代理撤离或留在原地的决策。这些代理在进化博弈论的框架下相互作用,有效地竞争有限的共享资源,包括财产恢复资金和协调服务。我们探索了四种场景,模拟了政府提供的激励措施的不同优先级。我们发现,随着资金价值的增加和家庭代理优先级的提高,激励措施的影响会减弱,表明在某一水平之外,进一步增加政府支持变得不切实际。此外,总体撤离率取决于底层社会网络的结构,当优先级跨过节点度时显示出不连续的跳跃。我们识别出所谓的“社区影响者”,优先考虑他们显著提高了总体撤离率。相反,优先考虑连接性低的家庭代理可能会阻碍集体撤离。这些发现证明了家庭代理之间的社会连接的重要性。本研究的结果有助于设计最优的政府政策,以在有限资源下激励和优先考虑社区撤离。
英文摘要:
Understanding evacuation decision-making behaviour is one of the key components for designing disaster mitigation policies. This study investigates how communications between household agents in a community influence self-evacuation decisions. We develop an agent-based model that simulates household agents' decisions to evacuate or stay. These agents interact within the framework of evolutionary game theory, effectively competing for limited shared resources, which include property recovery funds and coordination services. We explore four scenarios that model different prioritisations of access to government-provided incentives. We discover that the impact of the incentive diminishes both with increasing funding value and the household agent prioritisation, indicating that there is an optimal level of government support beyond which further increases become impractical. Furthermore, the overall evacuation rate depends on the structure of the underlying social network, showing discontinuous jumps when the prioritisation moves across the node degree. We identify the so-called "community influencers", prioritisation of whom significantly increases the overall evacuation rate. In contrast, prioritising household agents with low connectivity may actually impede collective evacuation. These findings demonstrate the importance of social connectivity between household agents. The results of this study are useful for designing optimal government policies to incentivise and prioritise community evacuation under limited resources.
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