利用中范围集合预报用于合成尺度系统风暴移位的可能最大降水估计
On Using Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts for Storm Transposition of Synoptic-Scale Systems in Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation
AI总结：
本文提出利用中范围集合预报进行风暴移位，以提高可能最大降水估计的准确性，通过分析大气河簇的演变轨迹，确定最佳移位区域并提升降水影响。
摘要：
大多数估计可能最大降水（PMP）的方法依赖于风暴移位（ST），即将历史观测或模拟的风暴从原位置运输到目标流域。现有ST方法，无论是经典还是基于物理的，都涉及假设和操作，可能引入不一致，使移位风暴的物理有效性存疑。本研究采用内部变异性利用（IVL）方法，将影响美国西海岸的2021年10月20-29日的大气河簇进行移位。通过考虑存档的ECMWF中范围预报中获得的可能风暴演变和轨迹集合，将风暴引导至目标流域并确定其移位区域。选定Willamette河和Nass河流域作为目标流域，分别位于观测降水最严重的区域以北约6度N，2度W和16度N，8度W。对于每个流域，识别出产生最大24小时流域平均降水深度的IVL实现，并应用初始和边界条件移位方法进一步增强其影响，产生Willamette河流域24小时降水深度为119毫米，Nass河流域为98毫米。
英文摘要：
Most methods for estimating probable maximum precipitation (PMP) -- the greatest depth of precipitation that is physically possible over a given area and duration -- rely on storm transposition (ST), the process of transporting a storm, either historically observed or simulated, from its original location to a target basin. Existing ST approaches, whether classical or physically based, involve assumptions and manipulations that can introduce inconsistencies, leaving the physical validity of the transposed storm uncertain. In this study, the internal variability leveraging (IVL) approach is used to transpose an atmospheric river cluster that affected the U.S. West Coast during 20-29 October 2021. Steering the storm toward the target basin and determining its transposition region are achieved by considering an ensemble of plausible storm evolutions and trajectories obtained from archived ECMWF medium-range forecasts. The Willamette River and Nass River watersheds, located approximately 6 deg N, 2 deg W and 16 deg N, 8 deg W, respectively, from the area most affected by the observed precipitation, were selected as target basins. For each basin, the IVL realization yielding the largest 24-h basin-average precipitation depth was identified, and the initial and boundary condition shifting method was subsequently applied to further enhance its impact, producing 24-h precipitation depths of 119 mm for the Willamette and 98 mm for the Nass.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
