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arXiv 2602.18403cs.LG
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科学知识引导的机器学习用于船舶功率预测:一项比较研究

Scientific Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning for Vessel Power Prediction: A Comparative Study

Orfeas Bourchas, George Papalambrou

AI总结:

本研究提出一种结合物理知识与数据驱动的混合模型,用于提高船舶功率预测的准确性,通过残差学习方法在稀疏数据区域表现更优。

摘要:

准确预测主发动机功率对于船舶性能优化、燃油效率和遵守排放法规至关重要。传统机器学习方法,如支持向量机、人工神经网络的变体以及树形方法如随机森林、额外树回归器和XGBoost,可以捕捉非线性关系,但往往难以尊重功率与速度之间的基本螺旋定律关系,导致在训练范围外的预测效果差。本研究引入了一种混合建模框架,该框架整合了来自海试的物理知识与数据驱动的残差学习。基线组件源自平静水域功率曲线的形式P = cV^n,捕捉主导的功率-速度依赖性,而另一个非线性回归器则被训练以预测残差功率,代表由环境和操作条件引起的偏差。通过将机器学习任务限制在残差修正上,混合模型简化了学习过程,提高了泛化能力,并确保与基础物理的一致性。在本研究中,XGBoost、一个简单的神经网络以及结合基线组件的物理信息神经网络(PINN)被与没有基线组件的相同模型进行比较。在实际运行数据上的验证表明,混合模型在稀疏数据区域中始终优于纯数据驱动的基线,而在数据密集区域保持了相似的性能。所提出的框架提供了一种实用且计算效率高的工具用于船舶性能监控,应用于天气路由、船体优化和能源效率规划。

英文摘要:

Accurate prediction of main engine power is essential for vessel performance optimization, fuel efficiency, and compliance with emission regulations. Conventional machine learning approaches, such as Support Vector Machines, variants of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and tree-based methods like Random Forests, Extra Tree Regressors, and XGBoost, can capture nonlinearities but often struggle to respect the fundamental propeller law relationship between power and speed, resulting in poor extrapolation outside the training envelope. This study introduces a hybrid modeling framework that integrates physics-based knowledge from sea trials with data-driven residual learning. The baseline component, derived from calm-water power curves of the form $P = cV^n$, captures the dominant power-speed dependence, while another, nonlinear, regressor is then trained to predict the residual power, representing deviations caused by environmental and operational conditions. By constraining the machine learning task to residual corrections, the hybrid model simplifies learning, improves generalization, and ensures consistency with the underlying physics. In this study, an XGBoost, a simple Neural Network, and a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) coupled with the baseline component were compared to identical models without the baseline component. Validation on in-service data demonstrates that the hybrid model consistently outperformed a pure data-driven baseline in sparse data regions while maintaining similar performance in populated ones. The proposed framework provides a practical and computationally efficient tool for vessel performance monitoring, with applications in weather routing, trim optimization, and energy efficiency planning.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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