去中心化平衡模型中的从众行为：比利时案例研究
Herd Behavior in Decentralized Balancing Models: A Case Study in Belgium
AI总结：
研究分析比利时去中心化平衡模型中参与度增加的影响，探讨隐性平衡反应可能过度导致的平衡成本上升问题，发现隐性平衡对参与者有益但需谨慎管理总容量。
摘要：
在去中心化平衡模型中，传输系统运营商（TSO）鼓励平衡责任方（BRPs）偏离计划以帮助系统恢复平衡，即隐性平衡。这可降低电网运营商的平衡成本并降低灵活资产的准入门槛，但隐性反应可能在总容量较高时过度，需要更多显性激活。本研究分析比利时去中心化平衡模型中参与度增加的影响，开发了一个市场模拟器生成分钟级价格信号，并模拟不同风险profile的电池资产的隐性反应。除了当前价格公式，还研究了TSO提出的两个潜在候选方案。使用比利时市场数据对2023年进行了模拟研究。研究发现，虽然隐性平衡在最初显著降低平衡成本，但当隐性反应总容量过大时，过度风险可能超过潜在收益。此外，即使平衡成本开始增加，BRPs仍从隐性平衡中受益。
英文摘要：
In a decentralized balancing model, Balance Responsible Parties (BRPs) are encouraged by the Transmission System Operator (TSO) to deviate from their schedule to help the system restore balance, also referred to as implicit balancing. This could reduce balancing costs for the grid operator and lower the entry barrier for flexible assets compared to explicit balancing services. However, these implicit reactions may overshoot when their total capacity is high, potentially requiring more explicit activations. This study analyses the effect of increased participation in the decentralized balancing model in Belgium. To this end, we develop a market simulator that produces price signals on minute-level and simulate the implicit reactions for battery assets with different risk profiles. Besides the current price formula, we also study two potential candidates for the near-term presented by the TSO. A simulation study is conducted using Belgian market data for the year 2023. The findings indicate that, while having a significant positive effect on the balancing costs at first, the risk of overshoots can outweigh the potential benefits when the total capacity of the implicit reactions becomes too large. Furthermore, even when the balancing costs start to increase for the TSO, BRPs were still found to benefit from implicit balancing.
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