找回婴儿：雷钦巴赫原则、贝尔局域性与选择偏差
Retrieving the Baby: Reichenbach's Principle, Bell Locality, and Selection Bias
AI总结：
本文通过揭示选择偏差与可分解性之间的关系，重新审视贝尔局域性原理在量子力学中的适用性。
摘要：
在1990年的晚些时候的文章《新烹饪》中，约翰·贝尔描述了从直观的非正式局域性原则到一个称为可分解性的数学规则的步骤。该规则规定，当可能的过去原因被固定时，空间状分离测量结果的联合概率，在给定测量设置条件下，应为局部条件概率的乘积。贝尔展示了可分解性与量子力学的预测相冲突，这些预测在许多实验中已被证实。然而，贝尔警告读者，导致可分解性的步骤应'以最怀疑的态度看待'。他说，'正是在为数学清理直观想法时，才可能丢掉婴儿与洗澡水'（1990，239）。贝尔的怀疑是有根据的，因为他自己错过了一个重要的婴儿。在这里我们找回并识别了它：它是选择偏差。我们解释了可分解性的失败可以被视为一种选择艺术，不需要违反直观的概念局域性。论证始于因果发现的核心原则，雷钦巴赫共同原因原则（PCC）。众所周知，由于选择偏差产生的相关性不遵循PCC。几位作者提出EPR-贝尔相关性也是PCC的例外，但并未注意到它们属于这一众所周知的排除情况。这一点不仅对贝尔非局域性的地位相关，也对统计学和因果建模相关。对于这些领域，消息是：选择效应在量子现象中扮演着普遍的角色，形式类似于碰撞偏差。
英文摘要：
In his late piece 'La nouvelle cuisine' (Bell 1990), John Bell describes the steps from an intuitive, informal principle of locality to a mathematical rule called Factorizability. This rule stipulates that when possible past causes are held fixed, the joint probabilities of outcomes of spacelike separated measurements, conditional on measurement settings, be the product of the local conditional probabilities individually. Bell shows that Factorizability conflicts with predictions of QM, predictions since confirmed in many experiments. However, Bell warns his readers that the steps leading to Factorizability should 'be viewed with the utmost suspicion'. He says that 'it is precisely in cleaning up intuitive ideas for mathematics that one is likely to throw the baby out with the bathwater' (1990, 239). Bell's suspicions were well-founded, for he himself misses an important baby. Here we retrieve and identify it: it is selection bias. We explain how failure of Factorizability may be regarded as a selection artefact, requiring no violation of locality in the intuitive, conceptual sense with which Bell begins his analysis. The argument begins with a central principle of causal discovery, Reichenbach's Principle of Common Cause (PCC). It is well known that correlations due to selection bias are not subject to PCC. Several writers have proposed that EPR-Bell correlations are also an exception to PCC, but it has not been noticed that they fall under this well-known exclusion. The point is relevant not only to the status of Bell nonlocality, but also for statistics and causal modeling. For these fields, the news is that selection effects play a ubiquitous role in quantum phenomena, in a form akin to collider bias.
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