被工具蒙蔽：系统误差在黄金暗 sirens 宇宙学中的成本
Tarnished by Tools: Cost of Systematics in Golden Dark Siren Cosmology
AI总结：
研究揭示了黄金暗 sirens 宇宙学中系统误差的影响，强调了波形建模和探测器校准精度对高精度$H_0$测量的重要性。
摘要：
黄金暗 sirens - 极其精确定位的引力波（GW）源，没有电磁对应物 - 提供了一种通过下一代（XG）探测器进行哈勃常数$H_0$高精度测量的有力途径。然而，这种方法的统计潜力对波形精度和探测器校准提出了严格要求，因为即使小的系统误差在高信噪比下也会主导统计不确定性。我们通过一个与当前GW观测一致的二进制黑洞合成群体，研究了黄金暗 sirens 宇宙学中波形建模系统误差的影响，并在XG探测器时代分析了该群体。通过将最先进的波形模型与基于数值相对论的参考信号进行比较，我们量化了从建模和数据分析角度的建模不准确性，并评估了这些误差如何传播到光度距离、宿主星系关联和单事件$H_0$推断的偏差。我们发现，尽管当前的波形模型通常允许恢复统计上一致的$H_0$后验，但小的波形诱导偏差可以显著影响三维定位和宿主星系排名，偶尔导致错误的红移分配。我们进一步推导了为确保XG网络观测中校准系统误差保持次要的探测器校准精度的量级要求。为了实现亚百分比的$H_0$测量，黄金暗 sirens 需要波形和校准精度随信噪比按$\mathcal{O}(ρ^{-2})$缩放，这推动了XG时代波形建模、数值相对论和探测器校准的持续进步。
英文摘要：
Golden dark sirens - exceptionally well-localized gravitational-wave (GW) sources without electromagnetic counterparts - offer a powerful route to precision measurements of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, with next-generation (XG) detectors. The statistical promise of this method, however, places stringent demands on waveform accuracy and detector calibration, as even small systematic errors can dominate over statistical uncertainties at high signal-to-noise ratios. We investigate the impact of waveform-modeling systematics on golden dark siren cosmology using a synthetic population of binary black holes consistent with current GW observations and analyzed in the XG-detector era. By comparing state-of-the-art waveform models against numerical-relativity-based reference signals, we quantify modeling inaccuracies from both modeling and data-analysis perspectives and assess how they propagate into biases in luminosity distance, host-galaxy association, and single-event $H_0$ inference. We find that while current waveform models often allow recovery of statistically consistent $H_0$ posteriors, small waveform-induced biases can significantly affect three-dimensional localization and host galaxy ranking, occasionally leading to incorrect redshift assignments. We further derive order-of-magnitude requirements on detector calibration accuracy needed to ensure that calibration systematics remain subdominant for golden dark sirens observed with XG networks. To realize sub-percent $H_0$ measurements with golden dark sirens will require waveform and calibration accuracies that scale as $\mathcal{O}(ρ^{-2})$ with signal-to-noise ratio, motivating sustained advances in waveform modeling, numerical relativity, and detector calibration for the XG era.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
