潮汐触发与太阳活动的可预测性
Tidal triggers and the predictability of solar activity
AI总结：
本文通过分析太阳活动事件与行星潮汐强迫的对应关系，发现1.723年周期与金星、地球和木星大潮的拍频一致，并指出近期太阳风暴和强X耀斑与联合潮汐强迫极大值吻合，从而支持潮汐力同步太阳准两年振荡和施瓦贝周期的假说。
摘要：
太阳磁流体动力学中的磁罗斯贝波目前被认为是太阳活动的主要决定因素之一。特别是，它们可以引起准两年振荡（QBO）。最近研究表明，QBO由一个约1.7年的相位稳定周期主导。通过分析72次地面增强事件（GLE）和37次S耀斑，我们确定该周期接近1.723年。这恰好是潮汐主导行星金星、地球和木星的大潮周期之间的主拍频，这些行星被认为不仅同步了QBO，还同步了11.07年的施瓦贝周期。我们证明，近期事件，如2024年5月10日的太阳风暴和2026年2月1日的强X耀斑，与联合潮汐强迫的极大值吻合良好。
英文摘要：
Magneto-Rossby waves in the solar tachocline are currently considered to be one of the main determinants of solar activity. In particular, they can give rise to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The latter was recently shown to be dominated by a phase-stable period of around 1.7 years. By analyzing 72 ground-level enhancement (GLE) events and 37 S-flares, we determine that this period is close to 1.723 years. This, in turn, is the dominant beat between the periods of the spring tides of the tidally dominant planets Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, which are suspected to synchronize not only the QBO, but also the 11.07-year Schwabe cycle. We demonstrate that recent events, such as the solar storm of 2024 May 10 and the strong X-flare of 2026 February 1, align well with maxima of the combined tidal forcing.
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