市场改革对欧洲电力网确定性频率偏差的影响
Impact of Market Reforms on Deterministic Frequency Deviations in the European Power Grid
AI总结：
本文研究了欧洲电力市场改革对确定性频率偏差的影响，发现改革减少了小时尺度的频率偏差，但对极端事件的影响不明确，需结合技术与监管措施进一步降低低惯性系统的频率波动。
摘要：
确定性频率偏差（DFDs）是由于电力市场调度引发的同步发电爬坡所导致的系统性和可预测的电网频率波动。本文分析了2025年10月1日实施的欧洲日间市场改革，该改革将小时交易块替换为季度交易块，对中央欧洲同步区域中的DFDs的影响。利用公开的频率测量数据，我们基于每日频率曲线、频率偏差指标、主成分分析、基于傅里叶的功能数据分析以及功率谱密度分析，比较了改革前后时期。我们证明，改革显著减少了特征小时频率偏差，并抑制了小时和半小时时间尺度上的主导谱分量，而季度结构相对重要性增加。虽然总体上大型频率偏差发生的可能性降低，但极端事件的减少不明确，且取决于所用的指标。我们的结果表明，市场设计改革可以有效缓解系统性频率偏差，但也强调需要互补的技术和监管措施，以进一步减少低惯性电力系统中的大频率波动。
英文摘要：
Deterministic frequency deviations (DFDs) are systematic and predictable excursions of grid frequency that arise from synchronized generation ramps induced by electricity market scheduling. In this paper, we analyze the impact of the European day-ahead market reform of 1 October 2025, which replaced hourly trading blocks with quarter-hourly blocks, on DFDs in the Central European synchronous area. Using publicly available frequency measurements, we compare periods before and after the reform based on daily frequency profiles, indicators characterizing frequency deviations, principal component analysis, Fourier-based functional data analysis, and power spectral density analysis. We show that the reform substantially reduces characteristic hourly frequency deviations and suppresses dominant spectral components at hourly and half-hourly time scales, while quarter-hourly structures gain relative importance. While the likelihood of large frequency deviations decreases overall, reductions for extreme events are less clear and depend on the metric used. Our results demonstrate that market design reforms can effectively mitigate systematic frequency deviations, but also highlight that complementary technical and regulatory measures are required to further reduce large frequency excursions in low-inertia power systems.
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