输出收敛争论再审视：来自面板数据模型分析近期发展的启示
The Output Convergence Debate Revisited: Lessons from recent developments in the analysis of panel data models
AI总结：
本文通过动态共同相关效应估计器揭示了输出收敛争论的实证问题，发现国家间收敛缓慢而国家内收敛较快，资本积累是主要影响因素。
摘要：
本文对输出收敛争论的实证基础进行了批判性审视，结合动态异质面板中交互效应分析的最新发展。研究表明，流行的工具如巴罗的跨国家回归和双向固定效应（TWFE）估计器，假设平行趋势和同质动态，导致收敛速度的严重低估和误导性推断。相反，Chudik和Pesaran（2015a）提出的动态共同相关效应（DCCE）估计器提供了一致的估计和有效的推断，其结果对非平行趋势和相关异质性具有鲁棒性，即使在潜在技术因素中存在断裂、趋势或单位根时也适用。此外，它还提供了一种估计缓慢移动增长决定因素效应的方法。理论发现辅以使用宾夕法尼亚世界表数据的实证证据，发现国家间人均产出收敛几乎没有证据，但国家间增长收敛有极慢的证据，而国家内收敛则相对快速。资本积累被发现是影响国家间产出差异最重要的单一决定因素，而缓慢变化的指标如冲突潜力和财产保护被证明是影响人均产出稳态水平的统计显著决定因素。我们还能够复制民主化对产出的积极证据，但发现当允许非平行趋势和动态异质性时，该效应的统计显著性会下降。
英文摘要：
This paper provides a critical examination of the empirical basis of the output convergence debate in the light of recent developments in the analysis of dynamic heterogeneous panels with interactive effects. It shows that popular tools such as Barro's cross-country regressions and two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimators that assume parallel trends and homogeneous dynamics lead to substantial under-estimation of the speed of convergence and misleading inference. Instead, dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) estimators due to Chudik and Pesaran (2015a) provide consistent estimates and valid inference that are robust to nonparallel trends and correlated heterogeneity and apply even if there are breaks, trends and/or unit roots in the latent technology factor. It also suggests a way to estimate the effect of slowly moving determinants of growth. The theoretical findings are augmented with empirical evidence using Penn World Tables data, finding little evidence of per capita output convergence across countries, very slow evidence of cross country growth convergence, and reasonably fast within country convergence. Capital accumulation is found to be the most important single determinant of cross-country differences in output while slow moving indicators such as potential for conflict and protection of property rights proved to be statistically significant determinants of the steady state levels of output per capita. We are also able to replicate a positive evidence of democratization on output, but we find that the statistical significance of this effect to fall as we allow for nonparallel trends and dynamic heterogeneity.
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