与西方对抗与长期经济与制度结果：来自伊朗的证据
Confrontation with the West and Long-Run Economic and Institutional Outcomes: Evidence from Iran
AI总结：
本文通过实证分析发现，伊朗与西方对抗导致长期经济和制度严重恶化，包括GDP下降、投资减少及政治稳定下降，揭示了持续对抗对经济和制度的深远影响。
摘要：
本文研究了伊朗与西方对抗的长期经济和制度后果，将2006-2007年的战略转变视为持续对抗制度的开始，而非一次性的制裁事件。利用合成控制和广义合成控制方法，我从与西方持续保持正常关系的国家池中构建了透明的反事实情景，以分析伊朗对抗后的轨迹。我发现实际GDP和人均GDP出现了显著而持久的下降，同时外国直接投资、贸易一体化和非石油出口均大幅下降。这些经济影响与政治稳定、法治和腐败控制的实质性和持续性恶化相吻合。幅度计算表明，尽管没有内部武装冲突，累积产出损失相当于内战情况。结果突显对抗作为一种深刻而持久的经济和制度冲击，将文献从短期制裁影响扩展到持续的地缘政治孤立。
英文摘要：
This paper studies the long-run economic and institutional consequences of Iran's confrontation with the West, treating the 2006-2007 strategic shift as the onset of a sustained confrontation regime rather than a discrete sanctions episode. Using synthetic control and generalized synthetic control methods, I construct transparent counterfactuals for Iran's post-confrontation trajectory from a donor pool of countries with continuously normalized relations with the West. I find large, persistent losses in real GDP and GDP per capita, accompanied by sharp declines in foreign direct investment, trade integration, and non-oil exports. These economic effects coincide with substantial and durable deterioration in political stability, rule of law, and control of corruption. Magnitude calculations imply cumulative output losses comparable to civil-war settings, despite the absence of internal armed conflict. The results highlight confrontation as a deep and persistent economic and institutional shock, extending the literature beyond short-run sanctions effects to sustained geopolitical isolation.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
