美国还能有多少地方还能建设新的超大规模数据中心？一种基于约束的可行性分析
How Much of the United States Can Still Host New Hyperscale Data Centers? A Constraint-Based Feasibility Analysis
AI总结：
本文基于美国的地理空间框架，分析了在现有物理、基础设施和环境约束下，超大规模数据中心的可行建设区域，得出美国实际可行容量在数十吉瓦范围内。
摘要：
超大规模数据中心的快速扩张，主要由云计算和生成式人工智能驱动，正在对电力系统、土地和气候敏感的基础设施施加越来越大的压力。尽管现有的地图记录了数据中心目前的位置，但一个主要未解决的问题依然存在：在当今的物理、基础设施和环境约束下，还能在哪里建设超大规模数据中心？在这里，我们针对这个问题，专注于美国，使用一种全国范围的、以约束为基础的地理空间框架，通过揭示的超大规模选址模式推断可行性，而不是通过需求预测或优化假设。通过将电力电网邻近性、环境限制、土地使用限制和气候限制整合到统一的六边形空间系统中，我们估计了可行的超大规模数据中心承载能力。我们提出的方法得出一个有限的可行土地范围，意味着与朴素的土地可用性假设相比，存在显著的缩减。基于观察到的建设模式，我们估计美国实际可行的超大规模数据中心容量在数十吉瓦而不是数百吉瓦的范围内。本文的结果旨在支持在现代约束下对基础设施可行性的全国级推理。
英文摘要：
The rapid expansion of hyperscale data centers, primarily driven by cloud computing and generative AI is placing growing pressure on electricity systems, land, and climate-sensitive infrastructure. While existing maps document where data centers are currently located, a major unanswered question remains: where can hyperscale data centers still be built under present-day physical, infrastructural, and environmental constraints? Here we address this question, focusing on the United States, using a national-scale, constraint-first geospatial framework that infers feasibility from revealed hyperscale siting patterns rather than from demand forecasts or optimization assumptions. By combining power-grid adjacency, environmental limits, land-use constraints, and climatic constraints within a uniform hexagonal spatial system, we estimate the feasible hyperscale hosting capacity. Our presented approaches converge on a limited feasible land envelope, implying a substantial contraction relative to naive land-availability assumptions. Based on observed build-out patterns, we estimate that total physically feasible U.S. hyperscale capacity lies in the tens of gigawatts rather than the hundreds. The results of this piece are intended to support national-scale reasoning about infrastructure feasibility under modern constraints.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
