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arXiv 2602.02096physics.ao-phcs.AI
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WADEPre: 基于小波分解的极端降水现在预测模型与多尺度学习

WADEPre: A Wavelet-based Decomposition Model for Extreme Precipitation Nowcasting with Multi-Scale Learning

Hangzhou Dianzi University(杭州电子科技大学);Nanjing University(南京大学);Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences(浙江省气象科学研究院)

Baitian Liu, Haiping Zhang, Huiling Yuan, Dongjing Wang, Ying Li, Feng Chen, Hao Wu

AI总结:

WADEPre通过小波分解和多尺度学习提升极端降水现在预测的精度和保真度。

摘要:

降水强度的重尾性质阻碍了精确的降水现在预测。标准模型通过优化像素级损失进行优化,容易产生回归到均值的偏差,从而模糊极端值。现有的基于傅里叶的方法也缺乏解决瞬时对流单元所需的空间局部化能力。为克服这些内在限制,我们提出了WADEPre,一种基于小波分解的极端降水现在预测模型,将建模转换到小波域。通过利用离散小波变换进行显式分解,WADEPre采用双分支架构:近似网络用于建模稳定的低频对流,隔离确定性趋势与统计偏差;空间局部化的细节网络用于捕捉高频随机对流,解决瞬时奇异性和保持锐利边界。随后的精修模块则动态地将这些解耦的多尺度组件重新构建为最终的高保真预测。为解决优化不稳定性,我们引入了多尺度课程学习策略,逐步将监督从粗尺度转移到细粒度细节。在SEVIR和上海雷达数据集上的大量实验表明,WADEPre在捕捉极端阈值和保持结构保真度方面取得了显著改进。我们的代码可在https://github.com/sonderlau/WADEPre上获取。

英文摘要:

The heavy-tailed nature of precipitation intensity impedes precise precipitation nowcasting. Standard models that optimize pixel-wise losses are prone to regression-to-the-mean bias, which blurs extreme values. Existing Fourier-based methods also lack the spatial localization needed to resolve transient convective cells. To overcome these intrinsic limitations, we propose WADEPre, a wavelet-based decomposition model for extreme precipitation that transitions the modeling into the wavelet domain. By leveraging the Discrete Wavelet Transform for explicit decomposition, WADEPre employs a dual-branch architecture: an Approximation Network to model stable, low-frequency advection, isolating deterministic trends from statistical bias, and a spatially localized Detail Network to capture high-frequency stochastic convection, resolving transient singularities and preserving sharp boundaries. A subsequent Refiner module then dynamically reconstructs these decoupled multi-scale components into the final high-fidelity forecast. To address optimization instability, we introduce a multi-scale curriculum learning strategy that progressively shifts supervision from coarse scales to fine-grained details. Extensive experiments on the SEVIR and Shanghai Radar datasets demonstrate that WADEPre achieves state-of-the-art performance, yielding significant improvements in capturing extreme thresholds and maintaining structural fidelity. Our code is available at https://github.com/sonderlau/WADEPre.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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