同币不同增长：欧元采用的动态效应
United in Currency, Divided in Growth: Dynamic Effects of Euro Adoption
AI总结：
欧元采用对长期经济增长有负面影响，通过因果森林固定效应方法发现其平均减少GDP增长0.3-0.4个百分点，并揭示国家特征对货币联盟影响的重要性。
摘要：
欧元采用是否影响长期经济增长？现有证据混杂，反映了受试国家有限、长期跨度挑战推断以及成员国间的异质性。我们使用结合因果森林与双向固定效应的因果森林固定效应（CFFE）方法，估计因果动态和异质处理效应。在条件平行趋势假设下，我们发现欧元采用平均每年减少GDP增长0.3-0.4个百分点。效果在采用后不久出现，并在大约十年后稳定下来。平均效应掩盖了显著的异质性。初始人均GDP较低的国家经历更大的和更持久的增长缺口，而非核心国家。较弱的消费和生产率增长促成总体影响，而净出口的改善部分抵消了这些下降。一个包含滞后效应的双国家新凯恩斯DSGE模型生成了相似的模式：单一货币政策和疤痕机制在货币联盟下导致更大的产出损失，比在灵活汇率下更严重。通过联合估计动态和异质处理效应，分析突显了国家特征在评估货币联盟长期后果中的重要性。
英文摘要：
Does euro adoption affect long-run economic growth? Existing evidence is mixed, reflecting limited treated countries, long horizons that challenge inference, and heterogeneity across member states. We estimate causal dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects using Causal Forests with Fixed Effects (CFFE), a machine-learning approach that combines causal forests with two-way fixed effects. Under a conditional parallel-trends assumption, we find that euro adoption reduced annual GDP growth by 0.3-0.4 percentage points on average. Effects emerge shortly after adoption and stabilize after roughly a decade. Average effects mask substantial heterogeneity. Countries with lower initial GDP per capita experience larger and more persistent growth shortfalls than core economies. Weaker consumption and productivity growth contribute to the overall effect, while improvements in net exports partially offset these declines. A two-country New Keynesian DSGE model with hysteresis generates qualitatively similar patterns: one-size-fits-all monetary policy and scarring mechanisms produce larger output losses under monetary union than under flexible exchange rates. By jointly estimating dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects, the analysis highlights the importance of country characteristics in assessing the long-run consequences of monetary union.
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