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arXiv 2601.12296cs.LG
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分布偏移是学习不变预测的关键

Distribution Shift Is Key to Learning Invariant Prediction

Hong Zheng, Fei Teng

AI总结:

本研究发现分布偏移对模型学习和不变预测具有关键作用,通过理论和实证证明,较大的分布偏移可提升ERM性能,接近不变预测模型。

摘要:

一个有趣的现象出现:经验风险最小化(ERM)有时在处理分布外任务时表现更优。这促使我们探讨此类行为背后的原因,而不仅仅是算法设计。在本研究中,我们发现其中一个原因在于训练域之间的分布偏移。较大的分布偏移可以导致在ERM下表现更好。具体来说,我们推导出几个理论和实证发现,证明分布偏移在模型学习中起关键作用,并有利于学习不变预测。首先,所提出的上界表明,分布偏移的程度直接影响所学模型的预测能力。如果偏移程度大,模型的能力可以增加,接近能够稳定预测任意已知或未见域的不变预测模型;反之亦然。我们还证明,在某些数据条件下,ERM解可以达到与不变预测模型相当的性能。其次,实证验证结果表明,只要训练数据中的分布偏移程度增加,所学模型的预测就接近Oracle或最优模型的预测。

英文摘要:

An interesting phenomenon arises: Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) sometimes outperforms methods specifically designed for out-of-distribution tasks. This motivates an investigation into the reasons behind such behavior beyond algorithmic design. In this study, we find that one such reason lies in the distribution shift across training domains. A large degree of distribution shift can lead to better performance even under ERM. Specifically, we derive several theoretical and empirical findings demonstrating that distribution shift plays a crucial role in model learning and benefits learning invariant prediction. Firstly, the proposed upper bounds indicate that the degree of distribution shift directly affects the prediction ability of the learned models. If it is large, the models' ability can increase, approximating invariant prediction models that make stable predictions under arbitrary known or unseen domains; and vice versa. We also prove that, under certain data conditions, ERM solutions can achieve performance comparable to that of invariant prediction models. Secondly, the empirical validation results demonstrated that the predictions of learned models approximate those of Oracle or Optimal models, provided that the degree of distribution shift in the training data increases.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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