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arXiv 2601.09151cs.LG
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通过Shapley重构实现LLM的可解释概率估计

Interpretable Probability Estimation with LLMs via Shapley Reconstruction

Yang Nan, Qihao Wen, Jiahao Wang, Pengfei He, Ravi Tandon, Yong Ge, Han Xu

AI总结:

PRISM通过Shapley值重构提升LLM概率估计的透明性和准确性,适用于金融、医疗等多个领域。

摘要:

大型语言模型(LLMs)通过利用其广泛的知识和推理能力,展现出对不确定事件概率进行估计的潜力。这种能力可以应用于支持跨领域的智能决策,如金融预测和预防性医疗。然而,直接提示LLMs进行概率估计面临重大挑战:其输出往往嘈杂,且底层预测过程是不透明的。在本文中,我们提出了PRISM:通过Shapley度量进行概率重构,一种将透明性和精确性引入LLM概率估计的框架。PRISM通过使用Shapley值量化每个输入因素的边际贡献,将LLM的预测分解。这些因素层面的贡献随后被聚合以重构校准的最终估计。在我们的实验中,我们证明PRISM在多个领域(包括金融、医疗和农业)中均优于直接提示和其他基线方法,在预测准确性方面有所提升。除了性能之外,PRISM还提供了一个透明的预测流程:我们的案例研究可视化了各个因素如何塑造最终估计,有助于建立对基于LLM的决策支持系统的信任。

英文摘要:

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate potential to estimate the probability of uncertain events, by leveraging their extensive knowledge and reasoning capabilities. This ability can be applied to support intelligent decision-making across diverse fields, such as financial forecasting and preventive healthcare. However, directly prompting LLMs for probability estimation faces significant challenges: their outputs are often noisy, and the underlying predicting process is opaque. In this paper, we propose PRISM: Probability Reconstruction via Shapley Measures, a framework that brings transparency and precision to LLM-based probability estimation. PRISM decomposes an LLM's prediction by quantifying the marginal contribution of each input factor using Shapley values. These factor-level contributions are then aggregated to reconstruct a calibrated final estimate. In our experiments, we demonstrate PRISM improves predictive accuracy over direct prompting and other baselines, across multiple domains including finance, healthcare, and agriculture. Beyond performance, PRISM provides a transparent prediction pipeline: our case studies visualize how individual factors shape the final estimate, helping build trust in LLM-based decision support systems.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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