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arXiv 2601.04434physics.soc-phq-bio.PE
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重建MSM性网络以指导PrEP分配策略用于HIV预防

Reconstructing MSM Sexual Networks to Guide PrEP Distribution Strategies for HIV Prevention

BRAN Lab, Network Science Institute, Northeastern University London（英国东北大学伦敦分校网络科学研究所）；Kent Medway Medical School（肯特梅德韦医学院）；Network Science Institute, Northeastern University（美国东北大学网络科学研究所）；Department of Mathematics, Northeastern University（美国东北大学数学系）；INESC-ID, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa（里斯本大学高等技术学院计算科学与工程研究所）；LASIGE, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa（里斯本大学理学院LASIGE实验室）

João Brázia, István Z. Kiss, Alexandre P. Francisco, Andreia Sofia Teixeira

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24 Pages, 16 Figures, 1 Table
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AI总结：

研究通过重建MSM性网络，发现网络结构对HIV传播模拟结果有显著影响，基于度或k壳中心性针对性PrEP策略在 assortative by age和race网络中效果最佳，但数据驱动的PrEP分配在 assortative by age和race网络中表现欠佳。

摘要：

男同性恋者（MSM）仍 disproportionately 受HIV影响，但优化PrEP分配仍是公共卫生挑战。现有指南和大多数建模研究未纳入塑造传播的社会人口学或网络层面因素。尽管从以自我为中心的数据中重建网络已有所研究，但人口混合维度的相对重要性仍不确定。利用4667名MSM参与者的数据，我们显示网络重建中的不确定性——特别是是否纳入年龄或种族的 assortativity——影响了在相同观察到的PrEP接受率下的模拟HIV流行率。我们在此结构空间中模拟HIV传播50年，并评估是否达到传输关键网络位置的实证观察接受率。网络结构强烈影响结果：按度数 assortative 的网络显示由于社区内枢纽隔离，平衡流行率降低了17%。基于度或k壳中心性的针对性PrEP策略实现了最高流行率减少，特别是在按年龄和种族 assortative 的网络中，枢纽桥接了人口群体。从数据中获得的PrEP接受率在按年龄和种族 assortative 的网络中表现不佳，相比基于网络的策略表现欠佳。结果表明，网络重建的不确定性影响干预设计，并强调在结构不确定性下需要稳健的预防策略。

英文摘要：

Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain disproportionately affected by HIV, yet optimizing Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) distribution remains a public health challenge. Current guidelines and most modelling studies do not incorporate sociodemographic or network-level factors that shape transmission. While network reconstruction from egocentric data has been studied, the relative importance of demographic mixing dimensions remains uncertain. Using data from 4,667 MSM participants, we show that uncertainty in network reconstruction from egocentric survey data - specifically whether assortativity by age or race is incorporated - affects simulated HIV prevalence under the same observed PrEP uptake. We simulate HIV transmission over 50 years across this structural space and evaluate whether empirically observed uptake reaches transmission-critical network positions. Network structure strongly influences outcomes: assortative by degree networks show 17% lower equilibrium prevalence due to hub isolation within communities. Targeted PrEP strategies based on degree or k-shell centrality achieved the highest prevalence reductions, particularly in assortative by age and race networks where hubs bridge demographic groups. PrEP uptake from data is suboptimal in assortative by age and race networks, underperforming compared with network-based strategies. Results demonstrate that uncertainty in network reconstruction affects intervention design and highlight the need for robust prevention strategies under structural ambiguity.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。

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