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arXiv 2511.04476cs.CL
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概率性文本时间序列抑郁检测

Probabilistic Textual Time Series Depression Detection

Department of Computer Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology(计算机科学系,皇家理工学院);Department of Information Technology, Uppsala University(信息科技系,乌普萨拉大学)

Fabian Schmidt, Seyedehmoniba Ravan, Vladimir Vlassov

AI总结:

研究旨在实现准确且可解释的抑郁严重程度预测,提出PTTSD概率框架,结合多种技术预测PHQ - 8分数,在相关数据集上性能具竞争力,消融实验及分析突出了方法中各部分价值与临床相关性。

摘要:

准确且可解释的抑郁严重程度预测对临床决策支持至关重要,但现有模型往往缺乏不确定性估计和时间可解释性。我们提出了PTTSD,这是一个用于从临床访谈话语序列中检测抑郁的概率框架,在对校准不确定性建模时预测PHQ - 8分数。PTTSD包括序列到序列和序列到一个的变体,结合了LSTM、自注意力和残差连接,以及通过负对数似然训练的高斯或学生t输出头。在E - DAIC和DAIC - WOZ上评估,PTTSD在纯文本系统中性能具有竞争力,并产生校准良好的预测区间。消融实验证实了注意力和概率建模的价值,校准分析和定性案例研究突出了不确定性感知预测的临床相关性。

英文摘要:

Accurate and interpretable predictions of depression severity are essential for clinical decision support, yet existing models often lack uncertainty estimates and temporal interpretability. We propose PTTSD, a Probabilistic framework for Depression Detection from clinical interview utterance sequences that predicts PHQ-8 scores while modeling calibrated uncertainty. PTTSD includes sequence-to-sequence and sequence-to-one variants, both combining LSTMs, self-attention, and residual connections with Gaussian or Student's-t output heads trained via negative log-likelihood. The sequence-to-sequence variant enables temporal analysis of how predictive confidence evolves over an interview, despite the target being a single session-level score. Evaluated on E-DAIC and DAIC-WOZ, PTTSD achieves competitive performance among text-only systems (e.g., MAE = 3.85 on E-DAIC, 3.55 on DAIC) and produces well-calibrated prediction intervals. Ablations confirm the value of attention and probabilistic modeling, while a three-part calibration analysis and qualitative case studies highlight the clinical relevance of uncertainty-aware prediction.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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