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arXiv 2510.03340cs.LGcs.AIcs.CYq-bio.PE
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基于多目标强化学习(MORL)学习帕累托最优疫情干预策略

Learning Pareto-Optimal Pandemic Intervention Policies with MORL

Marian Chen, Miri Zilka

AI总结:

本研究提出结合多目标强化学习与高保真随机微分方程疫情模拟器的框架,训练帕累托条件网络智能体,挖掘不同传染病防控中卫生与经济的策略权衡,为循证公共卫生政策制定提供支持。

摘要:

新冠疫情凸显了平衡疾病遏制与社会经济稳定的干预策略的迫切需求。我们通过设计一个用于建模和评估疾病传播防控策略的框架来应对这一挑战。该框架利用多目标强化学习(MORL,因存在相互竞争的目标而采用该范式),并结合一个经全球新冠数据校准和验证的新型随机微分方程(SDE)疫情模拟器。我们的模拟器在复现国家级疫情动态方面,保真度比疫情干预强化学习(RL)方法中常用的其他模型高出数个数量级。我们在该模拟器上训练帕累托条件网络(PCN)智能体,阐明了新冠疫情中流行病学控制与经济稳定之间的直接策略权衡。此外,我们将框架扩展应用于脊髓灰质炎、流感等具有不同流行病学特征的病原体,证明了其通用性,并展示这些特征如何引导智能体发现截然不同的干预策略。为了让研究贴合当前政策制定挑战,我们将模型应用于麻疹暴发场景,量化得出疫苗接种率仅下降5%就需要采取更严格、成本更高的干预措施才能遏制疾病传播。本研究提供了一个稳健且可适配的框架,可为缓解公共卫生危机的透明、循证政策制定提供支持。

英文摘要:

The COVID-19 pandemic underscored a critical need for intervention strategies that balance disease containment with socioeconomic stability. We approach this challenge by designing a framework for modeling and evaluating disease-spread prevention strategies. Our framework leverages multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) - a formulation necessitated by competing objectives - combined with a new stochastic differential equation (SDE) pandemic simulator, calibrated and validated against global COVID-19 data. Our simulator reproduces national-scale pandemic dynamics with orders of magnitude higher fidelity than other models commonly used in reinforcement learning (RL) approaches to pandemic intervention. Training a Pareto-Conditioned Network (PCN) agent on this simulator, we illustrate the direct policy trade-offs between epidemiological control and economic stability for COVID-19. Furthermore, we demonstrate the framework's generality by extending it to pathogens with different epidemiological profiles, such as polio and influenza, and show how these profiles lead the agent to discover fundamentally different intervention policies. To ground our work in contemporary policymaking challenges, we apply the model to measles outbreaks, quantifying how a modest 5% drop in vaccination coverage necessitates significantly more stringent and costly interventions to curb disease spread. This work provides a robust and adaptable framework to support transparent, evidence-based policymaking for mitigating public health crises.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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