暴露与危险性传染病干预中的时间依赖性
Temporal dependence in exposure and hazard-based infectious disease interventions
AI总结：
研究探讨了在同质参与者随机对照试验中，暴露的时间依赖性如何导致选择偏差，提出需在试验设计和解释中考虑此问题。
摘要：
在传染病干预的随机对照试验中，未测量的基线个体异质性可能导致时间上的选择偏差，从而影响危险比的解释。本文研究了同质参与者的简化设置，发现即使在看似理想的情况下，暴露的时间依赖性仍可能产生选择偏差。我们数学上刻画了这一偏差的机制并定量评估其大小，结果表明此问题应在传染病干预试验的设计和解释中予以重视。
英文摘要：
In randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of infectious disease interventions, it is well recognized that unmeasured individual heterogeneity at baseline can induce selection bias over time, thereby complicating the interpretation of the estimated hazard ratio. The present study examines a simplified setting: RCTs consisting of homogeneous participants, with no individual heterogeneity at baseline. However, even in such an apparently ideal setting, selection bias can emerge over time due to temporal dependence in exposure, a realistic feature of infectious disease transmission. In this study, we mathematically characterize the mechanism underlying this bias and quantitatively evaluate its magnitude. Our results show that this bias should be recognized as an issue in both the design and interpretation of RCTs of infectious disease interventions.
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