WASH项目干预下蠕虫传播动力学的数学模型
A Mathematical Model of Helminth Transmission Dynamics under WASH Program Interventions
AI总结：
本研究提出数学模型，将WASH干预参数动态纳入，通过分岔分析确定消除土壤传播蠕虫感染的临界阈值，为优化控制策略和公共卫生政策提供依据。
摘要：
我们提出了一个数学模型，用于研究土壤传播蠕虫（STH）感染的传播动力学，并评估基于社区的供水、环境卫生和个人卫生（WASH）项目干预措施的影响。STH感染在弱势群体中是一个紧迫的公共卫生问题，损害儿童的生长发育。我们的模型明确将WASH覆盖率和有效性作为动态参数纳入，从而能够分析它们对基本再生数和有效再生数以及无病和地方病平衡点稳定性的影响。通过鞍结分岔分析，我们确定了消除感染所需的干预参数临界阈值。数值模拟显示了这些阈值，并描绘了即使在广泛覆盖下，仅靠WASH干预措施可能足以或不足以消除传播的条件。我们的研究结果提供了一个优化蠕虫控制策略的数学框架，并为符合世界卫生组织到2030年消除STH感染全球战略的公共卫生政策提供了基于证据的见解。
英文摘要：
We present a mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections and to assess the impact of community-based water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) program interventions. STH infections are a pressing public health issue in vulnerable populations, impairing children's growth and development. Our model explicitly incorporates WASH coverage and effectiveness as dynamic parameters, enabling analysis of their effects on the basic and effective reproduction numbers and the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria. Through saddle-node bifurcation analysis, we identify the critical thresholds in the intervention parameters necessary for infection elimination. Numerical simulations show these thresholds and delineate the conditions under which WASH interventions alone may or may not suffice to eliminate transmission, even under widespread coverage. Our findings provide a mathematical framework to optimize helminth control strategies and provide evidence-based insights for public health policies aligned with the World Health Organization's Global Strategy for the elimination of STH infections by 2030.
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