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arXiv 2506.06355cs.CYcs.CEcs.CLcs.CV

LLMs作为世界模型:用于灾害影响评估的数据驱动、以人为本的震前模拟

LLMs as World Models: Data-Driven and Human-Centered Pre-Event Simulation for Disaster Impact Assessment

University of South Florida(佛罗里达州立大学);Arizona State University(亚利桑那州立大学);Massachusetts Institute of Technology(麻省理工学院);New York University(纽约大学);University of Alabama(阿拉巴马大学);Texas Tech University(德克萨斯科技大学)

Lingyao Li, Dawei Li, Zhenhui Ou, Xiaoran Xu, Jingxiao Liu, Zihui Ma, Runlong Yu, Min Deng

AI总结:

本文提出数据驱动、以人为本的LLM世界模型框架,融合多模态数据预测地震MMI,并在两次地震中验证其与DYFI报告高度一致。

摘要:

高效模拟对于增强地震等突发灾害的主动准备至关重要。近来,大型语言模型(LLMs)作为世界模型的进展展现出模拟复杂场景的潜力。本研究考察多个LLM,以主动估计人们感知到的地震影响。利用包括地理空间、社会经济、建筑和街景图像数据在内的多模态数据集,我们的框架在邮政编码和县尺度上生成修订麦加利烈度(MMI)预测。采用美国地质调查局(USGS)“你感觉到了吗?(DYFI)”报告,对2014年Napa地震和2019年Ridgecrest地震进行评估,结果显示出显著一致性:在邮政编码层面与真实报告相比,相关系数高达0.88,RMSE低至0.77。RAG和ICL等技术可以提升模拟性能,而视觉输入相较仅使用结构化数值数据显著提高了准确性。这些发现表明LLM在模拟灾害影响方面具有前景,有助于加强震前规划。

英文摘要:

Efficient simulation is essential for enhancing proactive preparedness for sudden-onset disasters such as earthquakes. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) as world models show promise in simulating complex scenarios. This study examines multiple LLMs to proactively estimate perceived earthquake impacts. Leveraging multimodal datasets including geospatial, socioeconomic, building, and street-level imagery data, our framework generates Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) predictions at zip code and county scales. Evaluations on the 2014 Napa and 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes using USGS ''Did You Feel It? (DYFI)'' reports demonstrate significant alignment, as evidenced by a high correlation of 0.88 and a low RMSE of 0.77 as compared to real reports at the zip code level. Techniques such as RAG and ICL can improve simulation performance, while visual inputs notably enhance accuracy compared to structured numerical data alone. These findings show the promise of LLMs in simulating disaster impacts that can help strengthen pre-event planning.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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