利用可变限速提高出行时间可靠性
Improving Travel Time Reliability with Variable Speed Limits
AI总结：
本文研究利用可变限速优化通勤者出行时间可靠性，针对存在瓶颈的交通走廊，基于运动波模型开发了分别处理随机需求和随机通行能力的两种互补优化模型，并通过经验校准数据验证了其有效性。
摘要：
本文分析了使用可变限速来优化通勤者出行时间可靠性的方法。研究聚焦于受通行能力下降现象影响的瓶颈交通走廊。优化准则是平均出行时间期望值与标准差的线性组合，交通流动力学遵循运动波模型（Lighthill, 1955; Richards, 1956）。我们开发了两个互补模型来最优设置可变限速：在第一个模型中，将每日高峰交通需求概念化为随机变量，所得模型通过三阶段优化算法求解。第二个模型基于确定性需求，转而使用随机微分方程（SDE）将瓶颈通行能力建模为随机过程。通过基于经验校准数据的数值算例，证明了两种方法的实际适用性。
英文摘要：
This paper analyzes the use of variable speed limits to optimize travel time reliability for commuters. The investigation focuses on a traffic corridor with a bottleneck subject to the capacity drop phenomenon. The optimization criterion is a linear combination of the expected value and standard deviation of average travel time, with traffic flow dynamics following the kinematic wave model (Lighthill, 1955; Richards, 1956). We develop two complementary models to optimally set variable speed limits: In the first model, daily peak traffic demand is conceptualized as a stochastic variable, and the resulting model is solved through a three-stage optimization algorithm. The second model is based on deterministic demand, instead modeling bottleneck capacity as a stochastic process using a stochastic differential equation (SDE). The practical applicability of both approaches is demonstrated through numerical examples with empirically calibrated data.
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