利用空间显式碳收支模型估算西部北方针叶林边缘泰加林再造林与造林活动的碳移除能力
Carbon removal capacity estimation of taiga reforestation and afforestation at the western boreal edge using spatially explicit carbon budget modeling
AI总结：
该研究利用空间显式碳收支模型与蒙特卡洛方法，估算加拿大西北部北方针叶林边缘2025—2100年造林可封存约38.8亿至194亿吨二氧化碳当量，为2050年净零目标提供重要依据。
摘要：
加拿大北部北方针叶林边缘通过大规模植树为减缓气候变化提供了相当大的潜力。在这些森林稀疏的地区开展造林，可以协助森林自然向北迁移，同时利用其碳移除能力。然而，由于缺乏空间显式模型，其固碳潜力尚不确定。本研究使用蒙特卡洛估计和碳收支模型，量化了2025年至2100年西北部北方针叶林边缘造林的碳移除能力。我们结合卫星清查数据和概率火情机制表征，在考虑火循环间隔、土地类别、种植死亡率和气候变量的情景下模拟了总生态系统碳。结果表明，在约640万至3200万公顷土地上造林，可在未来75年内封存约38.8亿至194亿吨二氧化碳当量，其中泰加地盾西部生态区潜力最大。即使是保守估计（38.8亿吨二氧化碳当量），也超过加拿大年度温室气体排放总量的五倍，对该国2050年净零目标做出了重大贡献。需要进一步研究以完善这些估算、评估经济可行性，并调查对永久冻土融化和地表反照率等区域过程的影响。
英文摘要：
Canada's northern boreal forest edge offers considerable potential for climate change mitigation through large-scale tree planting. Afforestation in these sparsely forested regions could assist the natural northward migration of forests while capitalizing on their carbon removal capacity. However, the sequestration potential is uncertain due to a lack of spatially explicit models. This study uses Monte Carlo estimates and a carbon budget model to quantify the carbon removal capacity of afforestation at the northwestern boreal edge from 2025 to 2100. We combined satellite inventory data and probabilistic fire regime representations to simulate total ecosystem carbon under scenarios considering fire return intervals, land classes, planting mortality, and climate variables. Our results indicate that afforesting ~6.4-32 million hectares could sequester ~3.88-19.4 Gigatonnes of $CO_{2}$e over the next 75 years, with the Taiga Shield West ecozone showing the most potential. Even the conservative estimate (3.88 Gt$CO_{2}$e) is over five times Canada's total annual greenhouse gas emissions, making it a substantial contribution toward the nation's 2050 net-zero goal. Further research is needed to refine these estimates, assess economic viability, and investigate impacts on regional processes like permafrost thaw and surface albedo.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
